LONDON Feb 28 Royal Dutch/Shell
believes a policy-led shift to gas, carbon capture and nuclear
power could keep a lid on climate change into the 22nd century
while a more free market approach would result in carbon
emissions some 25 percent higher.
Sketching possible paths of development for global energy
use, Shell, which has bet the most heavily of all the top oil
firms on a big future for natural gas, promoted its use as a way
to moderate greenhouse gas emissions between now and 2100.
It also suggested: measures to promote compact and energy
efficient cities; mandates for greater efficiency in transport
and buildings; and a price on CO2 emissions that would speed the
adoption of carbon capture technology.
In its first "moderate growth" scenario, called "Mountains",
Shell said, "Cleaner-burning natural gas becomes the backbone of
the world's energy system, in many places replacing coal as a
fuel for power generation and seeing wider use in transport".
Oil use might peak in about 2035, and thanks in part to CO2
capture, the power sector could be producing zero emissions by
In its "more prosperous, volatile world" called "Oceans"
where markets forces and civil society dominate, Shell envisages
the power sector becoming emissions neutral some 30 years later
with oil demand continuing to grow until after 2040 and high
energy prices encouraging "the development of hard-to-reach oil
Shell is the world number three investor-owned international
oil and gas company by market value, behind Exxon Mobil
and Chevron and ahead of BP, but it is the market
leader in liquefied natural gas (LNG), a growth area of the
natural gas industry, and it is set to extend that lead over the
next few years.
On a barrel of oil equivalent basis, its fourth-quarter 2012
production was about half gas, a similar proportion to Exxon and
a far higher one than both BP and Chevron.