New Year brings TV time slot tussles

By James Hibberd

LOS ANGELES (Hollywood Reporter) - Soon new battles will wage in primetime: ABC's hit thriller "Lost" against Fox's new crime drama "Lie to Me" on Wednesday. NBC's comedy favorite "The Office" vs. Fox's reality hit "Hell's Kitchen" on Thursday.

And Fox's sci-fi drama "Dollhouse" competing with CBS' Canadian import "Flashpoint" on Friday, to name a few.

Below are some of the most intriguing new time-period face-offs on the midseason schedule, along with predictions on which show will emerge as more popular with viewers.

These are not the easy calls (you can probably figure out who will win the Wednesday duel between "American Idol" and "Knight Rider"), but the potential squeakers that could tilt the odds on a series' chance of survival and its networks' overall performance.

Some may wonder: In today's time-shifted, multi-channel universe, does it still matter if Drama A airs in the same time period as Reality Show B?

Yup -- arguably more than ever. Most viewers still watch TV shows live. But more importantly, with the ratings standard for what makes a hit broadcast series dropping, how well a show stacks up against competitors is often considered a fairer measurement of success than whether a show draws a huge audience.

BATTLEGROUND: MONDAYS: ABC'S "THE BACHELOR" AND "TRUE BEAUTY" VS. NBC'S "SUPERSTARS OF DANCE" AND "MOMMA'S BOYS"

Analysis: This battle begins Monday with a quartet of freshman reality premieres. CBS and Fox will slug it out for first and second place, while ABC and NBC will fight for third with these unscripted shows. "Bachelor" has ebbed in recent years, while "Superstars" brings the "American Idol" producers to NBC. At 10 p.m., "Beauty" -- about 10 attractive contestants tricked into believing they're being evaluated for their looks but who are actually being judged by their civility -- will go up against "Momma's Boys," which has had a modest December run.

Likely winner: ABC is favored in both slots.

BATTLEGROUND: TUESDAYS AT 8 P.M.: ABC'S "HOMELAND SECURITY USA" VS. NBC'S "BIGGEST LOSER"

Analysis: Curiosity online about "Homeland Security" is running high, but "Loser" is one of the few strong NBC primetime shows that's shown no signs of weakening.

Likely winner: "Loser." Remember, "Idol" will air in this time period, too. Being the third reality show in any slot is a tough draw (live viewing is more common for reality than scripted). One expects "Homeland" could eventually work better for the network in a less nerve-wracking slot, like Friday nights, the way the similarly formatted "Cops" has served Fox for years on Saturdays.

BATTLEGROUND: WEDNESDAYS AT 9 P.M.: ABC'S "LOST" VS. FOX'S "LIE TO ME" VS. CBS' "CRIMINAL MINDS"

Analysis: This is a three-way Mexican standoff. Fox's keystone new show against CBS' usual time-period winner -- both crime procedurals -- and then there's ABC's strongly rated "Lost" returning after airing on Thursdays during the writers strike last year. "Lie" has the "Idol" lead-in and boasts a fairly solid pilot, plus the dramas that best maintained an "Idol" lead-in have been the somewhat similar "Bones" and "House." ABC hasn't yet scheduled a lead-in for "Lost," but the show is considered a self-starter.

Likely winner: As a serialized show, "Lost" will drop at least 10%, yet will probably win among adults 18-49, a demographic coveted by advertisers. "Lie" could surprise thanks to "Idol." Either way, "Minds" remains a good bet to dominate total viewers. Also, Fox holds a trump card here: The network could swap "Lie" and 8 p.m.'s "American Idol" at any time to protect their new show.