Southwest headed for Dust Bowl dryness: study

By Timothy Gardner

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. Southwest, home to some of the fastest growing cities in the country, could be on a path toward permanent drought caused by greenhouse warming, a new study said.

Dry conditions rivaling the Western droughts of the 1950s and the Dust Bowl that desiccated and then blew away the soil of the Great Plains states in the 1930s could hit the region and northern Mexico as early as 2030, according to the study, published in the journal Science on Thursday.

"The 30s and 50s droughts lasted at most eight or nine years. We're talking about something here that is a drier overall climate," Richard Seager, the study's lead author, and a research scientist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in New York, said in an interview.

"Once it's established, you're not going to be expecting precipitation to be turning back to levels we are familiar with in the later part of the 20th century."

Any long droughts could stress the agriculture industry, already suffering from dryness that began in 1999, and cities including Las Vegas and Phoenix. It could also affect cross border U.S.-Mexico relations, Seager said.

Water is already in short supply in the region with some places, such as Tucson, Arizona, relying primarily on supplies left over from the last ice age some 20,000 years ago.

The effects of long and severe drought on the largest water users in the region, agriculture and cities, will depend on how dwindling water resources are managed, said Seager.

Billions of dollars in water projects are planned or underway in the region.