Japan set to say emissions rebounded last year
By Risa Maeda
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's greenhouse gas emissions rose last year, government data is set to show, underscoring the huge challenge the government faces in meeting its targets under the Kyoto Protocol climate pact.
Data for the year through March 2008, expected to be out possibly as early as next week, may raise fresh questions about the government's reliance on voluntary steps to curb emissions. It is also likely to accelerate buying of U.N. carbon offsets by the world's fifth-largest emitter to meet its Kyoto obligations.
The pact, named after the country's ancient capital where it was signed, states that Japan must cut its emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and a suite of other greenhouse gases to 6 percent below 1990 levels between 2008-12.
But the data will probably show last year's emissions rose 2 to 3 percent to around 1.38 billion metric tons due to the closure of the country's biggest nuclear power plant, analysts say, putting total national emissions almost 10 percent above 1990 levels.
The rise comes after a 1.3 percent fall in the year to March 2007 to 1.34 billion metric tons. Japan has a Kyoto target of 1.186 billion metric tons.
Developing nations are already questioning Tokyo's political will to contain emissions to fight global warming. They fear rich states are not following through on pledges to combat climate change in talks that aim to agree at replacement for Kyoto at the end of next year.
The only saving grace for Japan, at least in the short term, may be the global credit crisis and a looming recession, which will help cut emissions as factories cut production.
But analysts say that will only be temporary, with IMF forecasts in October of an economic recovery toward 2012, the last year of the current Kyoto commitment period.
"Nobody hopes a slowdown will continue. They want the economy to get back to a recovery path, and if the economy recovers, emissions here will rise if we stick to the existing plans," said Naoki Matsuo, CEO of Climate Experts Ltd, Tokyo-based advisors.
Harufumi Mochizuki, Vice-Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, said at a climate conference this week he was optimistic about Japan's meeting the minus 6-percent target.
"But it is for sure that (Japan) should buy a certain, fair amount of carbon offsets," he added.
Japan's CO2 emissions from energy production rose 2.7 percent in the year ending in March totaling 1.218 billion metric tons, the government said last week. Energy-related carbon emissions account for nearly 90 percent of the country's overall greenhouse gas pollution, meaning total emissions last year are expected to be well beyond 1.34 billion metric tons in the previous year.
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RELYING ON VOLUNTEERS Continued...
