BRUSSELS Jan 16 The European Union's statistics
office will revise upwards the EU's annual gross domestic
product figures by 2.4 percentage points when it switches to a
new accounting standard in September, the European Commission
said on Thursday.
The change will affect all past GDP figures and future data
series, the EU's statistics agency Eurostat said.
The switch to the European System of Accounts 2010,
replacing the old ESA 1995, is part of a worldwide move to a new
accounting system called System of National Accounts 2008,
already implemented in the United States last August.
"The weighted average impact on GDP of methodological
changes is an increase of 2.4 percent of GDP, of which 1.9
(around 80 percent of the total impact) is due to the
capitalisation of research and development," the European
Commission said in a statement.
"The remaining methodological impact is due to different
elements, the most important of which is capitalisation of
military expenditure which represents 0.1 percentage point."
The statement said that in the United States the new
standard led to an increase of 3.5 percent of GDP for years 2010
to 2012, with the capitalisation of research and development
accounting for 2.5 percentage points.
The main changes introduced by the ESA 2010 are that
research and development will be counted as investment rather
than current expenditure. Spending on weapons systems will also
be treated as investment.
The change will affect the treatment of pensions, insurance
and goods sent abroad for processing, the statement said.
A table in the statement showed that Latvia, Lithuania,
Hungary, Poland and Romania would have between zero and 1
percent more GDP growth as a result of the change.
Finland and Sweden can expect the highest revision of
between 4 and 5 percent of GDP, Austria and Britain between 3
and 4, and Belgium, Denmark, Germany, France and the Netherlands
of between 2 and 3 percent of GDP.
"The 2.4 percent is a provisional approximate estimate of
the increase of the level of GDP which, more or less, will
affect all years," said Louise Corselli-Nordblad of the Eurostat
"In other words, all GDP figures for past recent years (and
future years most probably) will be increased by approximately
the same amount," she said.
"Finally, this means that changes between successive years
will only be marginally affected. It should be noted that the
estimated 2.4 percent does not refer to the euro area, but to
the weighted average of the available member states," she said.