Europe shares down, led by oil ahead ECB, U.S. data

Thu Jul 2, 2009 7:20am EDT
 
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* FTSEurofirst 300 down 1.0 pct; losses almost across board

* Food & beverages buck trend; Diageo top blue-chip gainer

* Markets waiting for U.S. jobs data, ECB

By Peter Starck

FRANKFURT, July 2 (Reuters) - European shares fell on a broad front by midday on Thursday, with food and beverage stocks the key exception, led by Diageo (DGE.L), as investors awaited U.S. jobs data and policy news from the European Central Bank.

The ECB's rate decision is due at 1145 GMT and bank President Jean-Claude Trichet's news conference starts at 1230 GMT. All but one of 82 economists polled by Reuters believe the ECB's key refi rate will stay at 1.0 percent. [ID:nL2512532]

By 1100 GMT, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 index was down 1.0 percent at 856.92 points, having risen 1.8 percent on Wednesday.

After a steep rise since early March, the European benchmark index has traded choppily in a narrow range since mid-June, as has the U.S. S&P 500 index .SPX.

"New impulses will come to the market once more evidence on the strength and durability of the economic recovery is visible, which may take some time before it will be convincing for investors," UniCredit said in an equity strategy note.

Hence the focus on the U.S. June non-farm payrolls and unemployment numbers due at 1230 GMT. According to a Reuters poll of economists, the non-farm payrolls are expected to show a loss of 363,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate is forecast to edge up to 9.6 percent from 9.4 percent in May. G7TODAY

"We are hopeful that we will see total non-farm payrolls fall by only around 300,000," ING said.

"This would take us back to the rate of declines seen pre the Lehman's collapse (in mid-September 2008), suggesting a return to more normal recession declines," ING said.

Goldman Sachs, which expects a weaker-than-consensus payrolls number of 425,000, said such an outcome might not necessarily hurt risky assets such as equities.

"The offsetting dynamic is that it should reinforce the view that (central bank policy interest) rates are likely to be on hold for an extended period," Goldman Sachs said.

"Relaxation on the rates front is likely to be broadly helpful to equities as long as the industrial news remains as positive as it has been," Goldman Sachs added.

With the jobs data out of the way before the long U.S. Independence Day weekend -- U.S. markets are closed on Friday -- the focus for equity investors is expected to shift to the upcoming corporate earnings season.  Continued...

 

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