* European mood lightens largely thanks to ECB plan
* Euro zone also tackling banking, budget problems
* Growing German optimism surprises U.S. strategist
By Luke Baker
BRUSSELS, Sept 10 At a private Brussels dinner
for European Union dignitaries last week, each table was named
after a fearsome figure from the cinema or fiction: Godzilla,
Darth Vader, Lord Voldemort and Doctor No were among the
Bruegel, the economic think-tank hosting the event,
subtitled the evening "Frightening Times" in a reminder to
guests of the scary moments that the European debt crisis has
thrown up over the past 2-1/2 years.
But far from being depressed or downbeat, the mood was
cautiously optimistic, thanks largely to a European Central Bank
decision a few hours earlier backing its promise to do "whatever
it takes to preserve the euro" with a new bond-buying programme.
As guests including French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici
and former ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet sipped aperitifs, all
the talk was of the ECB's offer of help for the likes of Spain
and Italy, whose borrowing costs have risen to punishing levels.
While no one in Brussels is declaring the crisis over, there
is a sense that the painstaking effort to suppress a crisis that
began in Greece in January 2010 is beginning to pay off.
"There's a more fundamental discussion now going on about
how do we fix economic and monetary union and where do we go
from here," said Guntram Wolff, Bruegel's deputy director,
underlining how policymakers were moving on from quick-fixes.
"The ECB has helped, for sure. But it's more that there is
now a sense that the big pieces are on the table for discussion.
We're dealing with banking union, with fiscal union and really
beginning to get to the heart of the issue."
Policymakers assembled by Bruegel last Thursday broadly felt
that the ECB - by saying it would buy the debt of distressed
euro zone members as long they request EU aid and meet strict
conditions - had taken a bold and potentially radical step.
This could help to ease the crisis although, as ever,
everything depends on countries living up to the commitments
made in return for help from the euro zone's bailout funds.
This is not the first time the ECB has taken extraordinary
measures to tackle the crisis. In a process started last
December and repeated last February, it issued one trillion
euros of short-term, low-interest loans. Yet that only managed
to stall the euro zone's problems for a couple of months before
government bond yields rose to new highs again.
This time the optimism appears stronger. Rather than
constantly having to come up with knee-jerk solutions in
response to financial market pressure, policymakers now have
more time to examine the roots of the problem and try to tackle
the structural problems underlying the crisis.
STEP BY STEP
Later this week, the European Commission will present
proposals for overhauling supervision of the euro zone's 6,000
banks, with plans for the ECB to be given primary responsibility
for monitoring the sector. In time, there are plans for a fund
to help wind-up bad banks and there will be deposit guarantees.
Once steps towards a banking union are in place, euro zone
leaders will begin discussing closer fiscal coordination and
efforts to align budgetary policies, aiming to strengthen the
underpinnings of the single currency.
There will also be debate about changing EU treaties to
tighten monetary union and define better how sovereignty is
pooled among member states. This will be a long and complex
process, but many leaders now acknowledge that it's necessary.
Steven Englander, the global head of foreign exchange
strategy at U.S. bank Citi, has found himself surprised by the
growing optimism in Germany and elsewhere.
New York-based Englander, who is touring Europe, noted that
ECB President Mario Draghi had won backing from German
Chancellor Angela Merkel and her Finance Minister Wolfgang
Schaeuble, despite opposition from the country's central bank.
"Meeting German investors before the ECB meeting, I was
struck how optimistic they were with respect to the euro, even
when they had been quite negative a few months ago," he wrote in
a note to clients on Sunday.
"The game-changer for them was the support of Chancellor
Merkel and Finance Minister Schaeuble for the ECB programme, and
Draghi's assertiveness, which had isolated the Bundesbank."
Expectations that Germany's Constitutional Court will on
Wednesday rule in favour of the euro zone's permanent bailout
fund has created some light at the end of tunnel, as it would
remove the last obstacle to the mechanism coming into force.
While all this keeps up the crisis-fighting momentum, no one
is pretending for a second that an end is in sight. Experience
shows the euro zone has a remarkable capacity to throw up
obstacles that can plunge the crisis back into its depths.
Sentiment could turn negative in an instant if Spain doesn't
request help or doesn't meet conditions imposed on it.
Greece, where the mayhem began, also remains an
all-but-intractable problem, with debts that may need to be
restructured again. Should anyone have forgotten that, two
tables at the Bruegel dinner were named Scylla and Charybdis -
both terrifying sea monsters of Greek mythology.