| DAVOS, Switzerland
DAVOS, Switzerland Jan 25 What a difference a
year makes! At the last World Economic Forum in Davos there were
frantic secret meetings on saving the euro and private straw
polls on whether the euro zone would break up and how soon
Greece would be forced out.
Twelve months on, the euro's survival is widely taken for
granted by the policymakers and business leaders attending the
annual forum, and the EU's top economic official has time to go
skiing while in the Swiss mountain resort.
"I recall last year in 2012, Davos was full of uncertainty
about the euro zone," European Economic and Monetary Affairs
Commissioner Olli Rehn said in an interview.
"Last year there was a very tense mood here. This year I
think we are seeing a sentiment moving from stabilisation to
recovery, and that means I should get a chance to do some
Perhaps the most striking change in this year's annual
gathering of the captains of business, financial services and
government is how little talk there has been about the euro.
The familiar prophets of doom are silent, or at least muted.
Indeed, there was far more discussion in the cavernous
Congress Centre and the luxury hotels that surround it of
whether Britain will still be in the European Union in a few
years' time after Prime Minister David Cameron's speech
promising an in-out referendum within five years.
"Brexit" has replaced "Grexit" as Davos man's nightmare.
Cameron got a warm reception when he addressed the global
forum as chairman of the Group of Eight major industrialised
nations with a rousing call for free-trade agreements, more open
markets, greater competition and a crackdown on tax avoidance.
But his comments on the EU were more divisive. "To try and
shoehorn countries into a centralised political union would be a
great mistake for Europe, and Britain wouldn't be part of it,"
BBC Economics Correspondent Stephanie Flanders drew applause
that reflected many participants' unease when she asked Cameron
whether he thought the business community welcomed the prospect
of five years of uncertainty over Britain's future in the EU.
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, a close Cameron ally in
pressing for greater economic liberalism in the EU, said a
British vote to leave would be a disaster, but he did not think
it would happen.
Last year, the economic elite were hanging on every word of
German Chancellor Angela Merkel's speech, in which she rejected
pressure to increase the size of the euro zone's rescue fund for
The key to reassuring markets was to restore lost trust in
government policies, she said.
In the end, Germany did accept a somewhat bigger financial
firewall, and a European bailout of Spain's banks. But it was a
pledge by European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi last July to
do whatever it took to preserve the euro that was the turning
point in the crisis.
Berlin's decision in August, after months of hesitation, to
keep Greece in the currency area at the cost of more financial
aid and a possible future writedown of Greek debt owed to euro
zone governments was the other big inflection point.
Speculators have so far not risked betting against the ECB's
determination, allowing Spanish and Italian bond yields to fall
back to levels not seen since before the peak of the crisis.
Draghi told the Davos forum that there was "positive
contagion on the financial market and for the financial
variables, but we don't see this transmitted to the real economy
Yet he resisted any idea of relaxing the austerity policies
that are contributing to keeping much of the euro zone economy
in recession, saying fiscal consolidation was unavoidable.
Both Spain and Italy have adopted strict austerity budgets
and tough reforms of pensions and labour markets, while Ireland
and Portugal have stuck doggedly to EU-IMF adjustment programmes
and are aiming to return to market funding this year.
A group of healthier European banks were due to announce on
Friday that they have repaid early some of the 489 billion euros
($649 billion) they borrowed in ultra-cheap liquidity from the
ECB last December to avoid a looming credit crunch.
Klaus Regling, head of the euro zone's ESM rescue fund, told
Reuters that foreign investors are piling back into southern
European countries' debt auctions, with China and other Asian
buyers leading the way, followed by Middle East funds and, more
slowly, U.S. institutions.
Only three months ago, Spain seemed to be on the brink of
having to request a sovereign assistance programme to trigger
ECB buying of its bonds. The question was when, not if.
Now Regling says he does not expect to have to fund a
bailout of Spain this year. Tiny Cyprus, closely linked
financially to Greece, is the only euro zone country that is
requesting emergency loans.
Investors and business consultants say they see signs of
investment returning to the euro zone, although not necessarily
to all of its troubled fringes.
"In Europe, people recognise it is going to be a long
process, but I think they are not nearly as pessimistic about
the long-term solvency of the European Union than they were last
year," said Ken Frazier, CEO of global drugmaker Merck & Co.
"There's a lot of commitment to the euro, and I also think
that people sometimes ignore that Europe is still a strong
economic engine," he said, even though his company has suffered
from cuts in European healthcare spending due to austerity.
The main concern of political leaders, central bankers and
investors is that European leaders should not get complacent and
let up on economic reforms now the existential crisis is over.
"There is complacency, and it is very dangerous," Angel
Gurria, head of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and
Development, told Reuters. "Everybody thinks we are off. But we
are not. How can it be? We still have stubbornly high
Asked what her biggest concern was for 2013, IMF Managing
Director Christine Lagarde listed the fiscal problems of the
United States, Japan and Europe, and keeping up the momentum of
structural economic reform in all three areas.
The WEF's Global Risks report, compiled a few weeks before
the Davos meeting, listed a possible systemic financial system
failure as one of the top five concerns, citing a persistent
threat from the euro zone, even though it has avoided break-up.
"The current eurozone instability will continue to shape
global prospects in the coming years," the survey of 1,000
experts and industry executives found.
"The associated risk of systemic financial failure, although
limited, cannot be completely discarded," the study said.