RPT-Pakistan's feudals could buttress Musharraf in vote
(Repeats story issued on Sunday)
By Robert Birsel
ISLAMABAD, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Going by opinion polls, the party backing President Pervez Musharraf will lose when Pakistan votes on Monday, but a handful of powerful families could deliver enough seats to buttress the unpopular president's position.
Musharraf and his political allies get blamed for almost everything in Pakistan; inflation, shortages of staple food, power cuts, Islamist militancy and the assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto.
But that could have little bearing in the parliamentary polls because of Pakistan's unrepresentative and oligarchic power structure.
Land-owning families known as feudals wield enough influence in their rural fiefdoms to defy the tide of public sentiment.
"They have a powerful hold on these constituencies where they field themselves as candidates and that's an extremely important factor," said political analyst and academic Rasul Baksh Rais.
Former president Farooq Leghari is typical of the rural families that dominate politics in the main battleground province of Punjab, where half the members of parliament will be elected.
"Whatever development you see is because of me or my father," Leghari told Reuters in a recent interview at his home in Dera Ghazi Khan district on the west bank of the Indus river.
"Whatever hospitals you see, even those in bad shape, whatever schools you see, they were built at our initiative."
Leghari is the respected sardar, or chief, of his ethnic Baluch tribe, and is standing as a candidate for the pro-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League (PML).
Leghari's son Awais, minister of information technology in the outgoing government, is standing in a nearby constituency. Other family members are standing for provincial assembly seats.
Awais played down the importance of the family name: "You have that stature, that people think you might be able to deliver, but if you don't deliver, they won't support you."
SELF-INTEREST
Surveys released last week by U.S.-based International Republican Institute and Gallup Pakistan showed the number of people who want Musharraf to quit at 75 and 81 percent, respectively.
But, even though the vote is largely about Musharraf, it is not a presidential election. The polls are for a National Assembly and provincial assemblies, where Musharraf will need support to fend off expected attempts to oust him.
Analysts say the PML recruited the strongest families in Punjab, although all mainstream parties try to attract feudal families to their banner because of the votes they command.
"It is a virtual vote bank because they owe their loyalty to us," the elder Leghari said of his people.
Leghari says it is the failure of governance and of those in charge to respond to the people's needs that has made families such as his powerful.
"We're constantly bombarded on the telephone and by visitors about people getting a a raw deal, injustice. People getting falsely implicated in murder cases, this kind of thing," he said.
Most of the feudal families are in Punjab and the southern province of Sindh where Bhutto's forefathers have ruled their lands for generations.
Rais said the families wanted to maintain their influence and control over social change and development.
It matters less to them which parties they belong to.
Some are backing Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and some the other main opposition party, that of another former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif.
"All of the families have an interest in sitting in government to protect their interests," said a Western diplomat.
That overriding motive of self-interest made it easy for army chief Musharraf's agents to recruit the feudal families' support when he overthrew Sharif in a coup in 1999.
"The stronger feudal families who will decide the election in Punjab went to the Q League," the diplomat said, referring to the pro-Musharraf party.
Syeda Abida Hussain, a former ambassador to the United States from an influential Punjabi family, has hopped parties several times and is this time contesting on a PPP ticket.
She objects to the term feudal, and says the anger over Bhutto's murder will decide the election.
"Events at the moment have nothing to do with families, it's to do with the reality of an assassination," said Hussain. (Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore and Sanjeev Miglani)
By Robert Birsel
ISLAMABAD, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Going by opinion polls, the party backing President Pervez Musharraf will lose when Pakistan votes on Monday, but a handful of powerful families could deliver enough seats to buttress the unpopular president's position.
Musharraf and his political allies get blamed for almost everything in Pakistan; inflation, shortages of staple food, power cuts, Islamist militancy and the assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto.
But that could have little bearing in the parliamentary polls because of Pakistan's unrepresentative and oligarchic power structure.
Land-owning families known as feudals wield enough influence in their rural fiefdoms to defy the tide of public sentiment.
"They have a powerful hold on these constituencies where they field themselves as candidates and that's an extremely important factor," said political analyst and academic Rasul Baksh Rais.
Former president Farooq Leghari is typical of the rural families that dominate politics in the main battleground province of Punjab, where half the members of parliament will be elected.
"Whatever development you see is because of me or my father," Leghari told Reuters in a recent interview at his home in Dera Ghazi Khan district on the west bank of the Indus river.
"Whatever hospitals you see, even those in bad shape, whatever schools you see, they were built at our initiative."
Leghari is the respected sardar, or chief, of his ethnic Baluch tribe, and is standing as a candidate for the pro-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League (PML).
Leghari's son Awais, minister of information technology in the outgoing government, is standing in a nearby constituency. Other family members are standing for provincial assembly seats.
Awais played down the importance of the family name: "You have that stature, that people think you might be able to deliver, but if you don't deliver, they won't support you."
SELF-INTEREST
Surveys released last week by U.S.-based International Republican Institute and Gallup Pakistan showed the number of people who want Musharraf to quit at 75 and 81 percent, respectively.
But, even though the vote is largely about Musharraf, it is not a presidential election. The polls are for a National Assembly and provincial assemblies, where Musharraf will need support to fend off expected attempts to oust him.
Analysts say the PML recruited the strongest families in Punjab, although all mainstream parties try to attract feudal families to their banner because of the votes they command.
"It is a virtual vote bank because they owe their loyalty to us," the elder Leghari said of his people.
Leghari says it is the failure of governance and of those in charge to respond to the people's needs that has made families such as his powerful.
"We're constantly bombarded on the telephone and by visitors about people getting a a raw deal, injustice. People getting falsely implicated in murder cases, this kind of thing," he said.
Most of the feudal families are in Punjab and the southern province of Sindh where Bhutto's forefathers have ruled their lands for generations.
Rais said the families wanted to maintain their influence and control over social change and development.
It matters less to them which parties they belong to.
Some are backing Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and some the other main opposition party, that of another former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif.
"All of the families have an interest in sitting in government to protect their interests," said a Western diplomat.
That overriding motive of self-interest made it easy for army chief Musharraf's agents to recruit the feudal families' support when he overthrew Sharif in a coup in 1999.
"The stronger feudal families who will decide the election in Punjab went to the Q League," the diplomat said, referring to the pro-Musharraf party.
Syeda Abida Hussain, a former ambassador to the United States from an influential Punjabi family, has hopped parties several times and is this time contesting on a PPP ticket.
She objects to the term feudal, and says the anger over Bhutto's murder will decide the election.
"Events at the moment have nothing to do with families, it's to do with the reality of an assassination," said Hussain. (Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore and Sanjeev Miglani)
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