Oscar's big fish are guppies at box office

By Steven Zeitchik

NEW YORK (Hollywood Reporter) - The restoration of the Oscars after months of strike uncertainty has delighted those who revel in the fashion and foibles of the annual glitzfest. But the actual nominees might evoke a lot less pleasure for those who count studio dollars.

With combined domestic ticket sales of $295 million, the five best picture nominees are on pace to tally the second-lowest total for that group in two decades. More tellingly, they will form the smallest percentage of overall box office for the year -- a measly 3% -- in the modern era (and would be a lot lower if not for the unlikely low-budget "Juno," which is approaching $120 million in domestic box office sales).

This awards season also will mark the third straight year that box office for the best picture contenders has hovered just at or below $300 million. Before 2005, it hadn't happened in any year since 1986, and a movie ticket cost a lot less back then.

The poor box office performance of Oscar movies isn't new to anyone who tracks receipts: Movies traded in dark themes this awards season, audiences didn't see them, you know the rest.

But taken in a historical context, the data are more pointed. The gap between box office and Oscar nominees is steadily widening. And increasingly, it looks not like a cyclical lull but a trend that's going to stick around for a while. (With much of a contemporary movie's revenue coming from DVD and international, it's worth keeping in mind that domestic box office is just one gauge of a movie's financial performance, if usually a pretty effective one.)

The question, debated by a number of studio executives and award experts interviewed this week, is: Why is this happening -- and who loses when it does?

First off, and most obviously, studios have exited the awards game. They're making fewer movies that typically interest the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, instead shuffling them to specialty divisions. What began as a move only by Disney several years ago to emphasize established franchises over traditional development is now catching on across the board (and is a phenomenon several agents said could accelerate as studios evaluate their post-strike development approach).

But many of those interviewed also laid the responsibility on a more complex set of factors that takes into account the Academy's mind-set and the subtle signals that pass between studios and voters.