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Yuan move would have little US job impact - ILO
September 30, 2010 / 10:02 PM / 7 years ago

Yuan move would have little US job impact - ILO

* 20 pct dlr cut vs yuan has no short-term U.S. jobs impact

* U.S. budget deficit cut would drive up unemployment

GENEVA, Oct 1 (Reuters) - A revaluation of China’s currency against the dollar would have little short-term impact on U.S. jobs, but a cut in the U.S. budget deficit could push up unemployment sharply, the International Labour Organisation said on Friday.

The study by the U.N. work agency looked at two of the most pressing issues in U.S. politics ahead of November’s mid-term elections -- efforts to force China to revalue its yuan currency to defend jobs in the United States and how fast and how far the budget deficit should be cut after the post-crisis stimulus.

A credible realignment of exchange rates could be part of a process to rebalance the global economy, but a currency realignment on its own was unlikely to suffice, the ILO said in its annual World of Work report. CNY=CFXS

The ILO said a 20 percent nominal depreciation of the dollar against the yuan would actually increase the U.S. unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points over two years, with a negative impact in the first year offset by some job gains in the second.

China’s own unemployment rate would go up by 1.8 percentage points, it said.

Conversely a two percentage point cut in the U.S. fiscal deficit as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP) would push the U.S. unemployment rate up by 3.1 percentage points over two years.

The study concludes that the best way to rebalance the global economy is a “rebalancing” of Asian economies, with improved social protection and a 10 percent wage rise.

That would cut the global unemployment rate -- currently about 6.5 percent -- by 0.3 percentage points over two years, against a 1.2 percentage point increase from the U.S. budget cut and a 0.1 percentage point rise from yuan appreciation.

But even Asian rebalancing would only shave 0.1 percentage points off the U.S. unemployment rate, it said.

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