UPDATE 1-Hungary bank 2009 loan losses to triple -cenbank

Wed Nov 4, 2009 5:21am EST
 
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* Bank lending losses seen at 3 pct in 2009, rising in 2010

* Sector CAR seen above 11 pct through the end of 2010

* No additional capital needed under base case

(Updates with detail, background)

BUDAPEST, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Hungarian banks' loan losses will triple this year and will keep rising in 2010 but the sector has enough capital to handle the deterioration, the central bank said on Wednesday.

Barring unforeseen circumstances, the sector's capital adequacy ratio is seen running between 11.9 percent and 12.8 percent through the end of 2010, which means that none of the banks will need additional capital, the central bank said in its biannual Report on Financial Stability.

"The impending portfolio deterioration is mainly a consequence of economic recession," the bank said. "In 2009, the loan repayment ability has been impaired by increasing bankruptcy rates for companies and by sharply rising unemployment for households."

Hungary's economy is expected to shrink by 6.7 percent this year, and growth is not expected to return until 2011.

The central bank added that the capital adequacy ratio of every single bank of systemic significance was expected to be above 8 percent at the end of next year without additional capital measures.

Loan losses for the corporate sector are seen rising through 2010 and may exceed 4 percent by the end of the year, but a slight decline to just below 3 percent is expected for household lending.

The sector's net profit in 2009 is seen exceeding the bank's earlier forecast for 100-200 billion forints, primarily due to one-off items in the first half, but in 2010, the sector's profit will be well below the central bank's earlier projection for 150-250 billion forints.

Under a stress test scenario of a 4.7 percent economic contraction in 2010 and a forint exchange rate of 315 versus the euro, loan losses could total 5.6 percent, above a baseline forecast of 3.1 percent for 2009 and 3.6 percent for 2010, based on economic contraction of 0.9 percent next year.

In the stress test scenario, the sector would need around 100 billion to 170 billion forints ($545-926 million) worth of fresh capital until the end of 2010, below an earlier projection of 200-250 billion forints, the central bank added.

The bank predicted that lending would not start growing again until late 2010 or early 2011, until external demand picks up, investments begin flowing and bankruptcy and unemployment rates start to drop. (Reporting by Sandor Peto and Balazs Koranyi, editing by Will Waterman)

 

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