Economy may avoid recession but slow growth seen

By Joanne Morrison

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy may have avoided a recession but will grow below trend for some time as firms face higher prices for a range of goods that will cut into profits, according to a panel of economists surveyed.

Economists in the quarterly National Association for Business Economics survey were less pessimistic about the economy's outlook in the June 19 through July 10 survey than they were in April, but price pressures will weigh on growth.

"More firms reported higher sales, but also higher material costs and lower profits, in the second quarter than in the first quarter," said Ken Simonson, chief economist at the Associated General Contractors of America.

According to the survey, a record 75 percent of the economists surveyed, representing a wide range of industries, said their firms paid more for materials during the second quarter and expect to see higher prices now as well.

The 101 NABE members surveyed come from all sectors ranging from manufacturing to financial services. NABE has been conducting this quarterly survey since 1982.

According to the latest survey, more firms are planning increases in capital spending, but continued slowing in the housing and tighter credit have had an impact.

"More respondents than in the past two surveys said tighter credit market conditions have affected their business negatively for the most part," Simonson said.

Still, 44 percent of the respondents said they expect inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) to grow at an annual rate above 1 percent in the second half of this year. But 45 percent expect growth to be below 1 percent and 10 percent expect a decline.