* German business morale drops to lowest since June 2010
* Ifo says ECB should cut key interest rate to 1.0 pct
By Sarah Marsh
BERLIN, Oct 21 German business sentiment fell
for the fourth month in a row in October, dropping to its lowest
level since mid-2010 and compounding fears Europe's powerhouse
economy is headed for a sharp slowdown.
The Munich-based Ifo economic think tank said on Friday that
its closely-watched business climate index, based on a monthly
survey of some 7,000 companies, fell to 106.4 in October from a
revised 107.4 in September.
This was the lowest level since June 2010, and slightly
better than the 106.3 forecast in a Reuters poll of 52
Market sentiment has been rocked this month by uncertainty
about a bailout for Greece and fears the euro zone's debt crisis
could spiral back into a banking crisis.
"Confidence and activity received a blow from the escalating
sovereign debt crisis, which has spread to the banking industry
and the real economy," said Aline Schuiling, senior economist at
ABN AMRO Bank.
"Nevertheless, we do not expect the German economy to enter
a recession, as final domestic demand should be rather resilient
and act as a buffer against declining exports."
Ifo economist Klaus Abberger told Reuters the European
Central Bank should cut its key interest rate to 1.0 percent,
adding he expected this to happen in two stages.
Germany's export-driven economy recovered swiftly from the
2008 financial crisis, outperforming its peers and providing a
crucial growth engine for Europe.
But data increasingly suggest growth is easing due to a
global slowdown and the euro zone's debt crisis. Industry
output, orders and retail sales slumped in August.
Forward-looking indicators such as the Ifo business climate
index point to a darkening outlook. Data this week also showed
German investor morale dropping to its weakest level in nearly
Chancellor Angela Merkel's government nearly halved its
forecast for growth next year to one percent on Thursday,
catching up with other recent downwards revisions by think
An Ifo sub-index on current conditions fell to 116.7 from
117.9 in September, while the expectations reading dropped to
97.0, down from a revised 97.9 in September.
German bluechips have warned recently about the
deteriorating outlook. Chipmaker Infineon last week
blamed uncertainty among its customers, linked to the euro zone
debt crisis, for an expected decline in sales.