* Output jumps 1.2 percent, beating all forecasts
* Contrasts with recent poor sentiment, jobless data
* Economy expected to have grown in first quarter
* Stock market soars, but top firms have cut forecasts
By Michelle Martin
BERLIN, May 8 German industrial output
unexpectedly jumped in March, fanning hopes that Europe's top
economy is gaining traction after a disappointing end to 2012,
helped by higher exports to the euro zone.
Output jumped by 1.2 percent on the month in March - beating
even the highest forecast of 0.8 percent in a Reuters poll
-after an upwardly revised 0.6 percent increase in February as
factories churned out more goods and energy production rose.
On Tuesday, figures showed industry orders rose again in
March, suggesting Germany's manufacturing sector, which makes up
around one fifth of the economy, is bouncing back.
"It looks as if the outlook for German industry is clearing
slowly but surely," ING senior economist Carsten Brzeski said.
"There's a lot of contradictory signs... but industrial
production looks OK - we will get out of the contraction of the
fourth quarter and though we're not accelerating as much as in
2010, we won't have a recession."
Brzeski said downturns in recent sentiment indicators such
as the Ifo business climate index were largely due to
uncertainty caused by the euro zone crisis and Cyprus's messy
bailout rather than the state of the German economy.
In a further sign Germany is not immune to global economic
weakness, the government lowered its tax estimates for 2013 to
2017 - though revenues should still rise thanks to a stable job
market and higher wages.
Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said Germany was still
on track for taking on no new debt from 2015 and the opposition
was wrong to propose higher taxes for the wealthy in its bid to
unseat Chancellor Angela Merkel in September's election.
"It's not that I'm swimming in money, I am just trying not
to drown in debt," Schaeuble told a news conference.
While Germany grew strongly during the early years of the
euro zone crisis, the economy slowed last year. A slowdown in
China, which had served as a strong alternative market for
German exports, is also weighing on Europe's growth engine.
But improved demand from the single currency area helped
fuel March's gains in output, which the economy ministry said
meant industrial production rose about 0.2 percent in the first
quarter from the fourth quarter of last year, when the German
economy as a whole shrank by 0.6 percent.
It said the improving order levels and a recovery in the
construction sector should give manufacturing industry further
impetus in the coming months.
Recent data from Germany has been mixed, with some
forward-looking indicators like business and investor sentiment
worsening though consumer morale remains firm. April data showed
the private sector contracted and unemployment rose, suggesting
Germany may suffer another contraction in the second quarter.
David Brown at New View Economics said recent downturns in
sentiment indicators were corrections after these surveys raced
ahead too fast earlier in the year.
While Germany's benchmark stock market, the DAX, rose to a
record high on Tuesday and retailers like Metro and
Adidas have recently expressed optimism,
announcements from other big German firms have been weak.
Industrial bellwether Siemens cut its profit
outlook on weak demand, synthetic rubber maker Lanxess
slashed its investment plans and Daimler scrapped its
earnings forecast after first-quarter profit tumbled.
First quarter has shown engineering orders falling, imports
and exports slumping and retail sales falling, though industry
orders have risen due to the recovery in euro zone demand.
Most economists expect Germany to have grown modestly in the
first three months of this year. Preliminary gross domestic
product figures are due on May 15.
"But recent deterioration in sentiment indicators suggest a
few more wobbles in German growth in early spring," said
Christian Schulz, senior economist at ING, though the picture in
Germany and abroad should brighten in coming months.