* ZEW index of investor sentiment rises second month in a
* But remains negative, current conditions index drops
* ZEW economist: euro crisis remains biggest risk to economy
By Eva Kuehnen and Sakari Suoninen
MANNHEIM, Oct 16 German analyst and investor
sentiment rose for a second month in a row in October, a survey
showed on Tuesday, suggesting fears that the euro zone's debt
crisis will escalate and damage the bloc's largest economy are
The Mannheim-based ZEW said sentiment appeared to have
bottomed out, though it remains deep in negative territory and
the assessment of current conditions in Germany worsened.
ZEW said its monthly poll of economic sentiment jumped to
-11.5 in October from -18.2 in the previous month, beating the
consensus forecast in a Reuters survey of analysts for a rise to
-15.0 and sending the euro to a session high against the dollar.
"The improvement in the mood is continuing. The concerns
over a renewed escalation of the euro zone debt crisis have
eased appreciably and thus concerns about a further worsening of
the economic situation," said VP Bank economist Bernd Hartmann.
"This could however be a false dawn. Even if the European
Central Bank's moves have reduced the extreme risks, European
countries, especially those on the periphery, are still facing
great economic challenges."
The ECB's plan for potentially unlimited government
bond-buying has raised some hopes on financial markets of an end
to the most acute phase of the crisis.
But ZEW economists said the euro zone's debt crisis and the
possibility that a member state may default remain the biggest
risks to the German economy.
"There's still a risk that some countries in the euro area
... will default," said ZEW economist Marcus Kappler. "We do not
see that at the moment, but the debt crisis is not over and
there remains a lot of risks."
For a long time Germany's economy seemed impervious to the
euro zone's troubles but growth slowed to 0.3 percent in the
second quarter from 0.5 percent in the first as firms held back
on investments due to uncertainty in the 17-nation bloc.
Recent data for Europe's powerhouse has been mostly
disappointing, showing business sentiment and industrial orders
slipping, the private sector contracting and unemployment
A German government source said on Tuesday Chancellor Angela
Merkel's cabinet would cut its expectations for economic growth
next year to 1 percent from a previous 1.6 percent. The
government is due to publish growth forecasts on Wednesday.
German industrial conglomerate Siemens said last
week it aimed to slash production costs and could cut jobs to
compete with its rivals, as business this year was proving
tougher than it had expected.
In the ZEW survey, a gauge of current conditions eased to
10.0 from 12.6 in September, missing the consensus forecast in a
Reuters poll for a reading of 11.3.
"The current situation is no longer as bright as once
estimated but the outlook is looking better," said Jana Meier at
HSBC Trinkaus. "This suggests that we will have passed the
trough by the end of the year."
"Even though Germany will not avoid an economic slowdown it
does not look as though there will be a recession."
The ZEW index was based on a survey of 288 analysts and
investors conducted between Oct 1 and Oct 15, ZEW said.