Dollar gains as investors mull risk
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar rose in quiet trade against most major currencies on Monday as investors reassessed risk and bet that Friday's sell-off on a U.S. payrolls report was overdone.
September jobs growth was the best since May and eased concern about an imminent U.S. recession, but some dealers sold the dollar on concern the economy is not growing fast enough to prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates further.
Monday's gains came as investors decided the jobs report indicated some vigor in the economy.
Adding to dollar strength was concern that the Group of Seven nations may address dollar weakness at their upcoming meeting, which could leave some investors who had been betting on the dollar's continued decline caught short.
"Today we have a more appreciative view of the job numbers and a more careful assessment of risk," said Joe Trevisani, chief market analyst at FX Solutions in Saddle River, New Jersey. "The job number wasn't so bad."
The euro traded down 0.7 percent at $1.4043, off its record high of $1.4281 hit last week, according to Reuters data, as the jobs number data reduced chances that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates this month. Traders said near-term support kicks in around $1.4030.
The dollar index firmed to 78.790, up 0.6 percent on the day and above its record low of 77.660.
The greenback also climbed to 117.38 yen, a 0.4 percent gain from late Friday and its highest level since a credit crisis sparked by losses on U.S. mortgages roiled markets in mid-August. Analysts said traders had recovered their taste for carry trades that use cheaply borrowed yen to buy higher-yield currencies.
ECB ON HOLD
Markets now see euro-zone rates on hold for the rest of 2007 after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet spoke of downside growth risks last week, and that has moved interest rate differentials in favor of the dollar.
With Japan and Canada closed for holidays and the U.S. bond market also shuttered for Columbus Day, trade was light, leaving the dollar near the top of rather narrow ranges.
"The jobs data last week wasn't great but at least it suggested we're not headed for recession, and that's reduced chances of a rate cut," said Meg Browne, currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York. "We're going to be in ranges for now ... there's really not much to trade on today."
The U.S. jobs report showed the U.S. economy added 110,000 jobs last month. It also showed an 89,000 gain in August, revising an initially reported payroll contraction that month.
That left futures reflecting a 44 percent chance of a Fed rate cut on October 31, lower than the 75 percent priced in last Thursday, the day before the jobs report.
TALKING THE EURO DOWN
Elsewhere, outgoing International Monetary Fund chief Rodrigo Rato said the dollar was undervalued. Various European officials have also complained about the dollar's decline and worried a strong euro would undermine the euro-zone economy. Continued...


