Barclays sees $100 oil in 2008, most bullish forecast

By Alex Lawler

LONDON (Reuters) - Investment bank Barclays Capital has raised its crude oil price forecast for 2008 to more than $100 a barrel, citing lower-than expected supply growth from countries outside OPEC.

The forecast is the most bullish among 30 banks regularly polled by Reuters and follows a spate of downgrades to estimates for supply outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

"We pushed it over $100 for the first time," said Kevin Norrish, analyst at Barclays. "The non-OPEC supply data as its coming in has been much worse than we thought."

U.S. crude, which first topped $100 a barrel in January, is expected to average $100.80 this year, Barclays said in a research note. Its previous forecast was $97.70.

Oil industry analysts are pessimistic on the outlook for production outside OPEC due to steep decline rates at ageing fields in places such as the North Sea, as well as problems developing new ones.

A Reuters survey earlier this month put the forecast for non-OPEC supply in 2008 at around 50.36 million barrels per day, down from 50.67 million bpd estimated in a poll last year.

Also supporting oil, OPEC has rebuffed calls from consumers for more supply to lower prices, saying the market remain well supplied. OPEC pumps more than a third of the world's oil.

While supply is lagging its expectations, Barclays expects demand to remain strong.

"We still see global oil demand growth as robust and likely to exceed the rate of 2007," the bank said.

While there are signs that the slowing economy in the United States is weighing on oil demand, fuel consumption continues to rise in faster-growing markets in Asia and the Middle East.

Barclays' new price forecast takes it far above consensus. In the Reuters poll, last conducted on Feb 28, analysts on average expected U.S. crude to average $83.87 in 2008.

(Reporting by Alex Lawler; editing by William Hardy)