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FOREX-Dollar struggles after G20; euro climbs above $1.50

Mon Nov 9, 2009 12:33pm EST

* Dollar falls after G20, dollar index falls to 15-mth low

* Risk appetite rises, U.S. rates expected to stay low

* Euro above $1.50 EUR=, dollar index below 75.00 .DXY

(Adds details, updates prices, quotes)

NEW YORK, Nov 9 (Reuters) - The dollar fell across the board on Monday, pushing the euro above $1.50, after a weekend G20 meeting and U.S. jobs data last week did nothing to change the outlook for low U.S. interest rates.

The conviction that interest rates in the United States -- and elsewhere -- will remain low for the foreseeable future and liquidity plentiful boosted demand for non-dollar currencies and other assets ranging from equities to gold.

The dollar index, the dollar valued against a basket of six currencies, fell to a 15-month low amid the broad malaise surrounding the safe-haven dollar.

"The U.S. dollar is weaker against most major currencies after the G20 voiced little concern about the FX market," said Meg Browne, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. "That gave a green light to sell the U.S. dollar and take on risk."

Traders also noted the Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers meeting at the weekend did not dwell on exchange rates, suggesting policymakers were not too concerned with the dollar's fall, which remains relatively orderly. For more details, click [ID:nLQ516726].

"Rather than voice concern about the US dollar's weakness, the G20 expressed concerns that the U.S. dollar could be over-valued while an IMF report described not only the euro, but the U.S. dollar as 'on the strong side'," Browne said.

Midway through the New York session, the dollar index was down 1 percent .DXY at 75.052 after going as low as 74.93, the lowest since August 2008.

The euro EUR= was up 1 percent at $1.4997 after going as high as $1.5020, climbing within sight of last month's 2009 high of $1.5061 based on Reuters data.

"It really is a true expression of how poor dollar sentiment is right now," said Paul Mackel, senior currency strategist at HSBC in London. Mackel noted sterling's rise to a three-month high above $1.68 and even the low-yielding yen's relatively robust performance against the greenback.

U.S. jobs data on Friday showed the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumping to 10.2 percent in October, sowing doubts about the sustainability of the country's economic recovery.

With no major U.S. data scheduled for release on Monday, investors focused on figures showing surprisingly strong German industrial and manufacturing output for September ECON.

STERLING GAINS

Sterling rose to its highest in three months at $1.6843 GBP= before retreating to $1.6718. still up 0.6 percent on the day.

Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday showed speculators had substantially decreased their net short sterling positions to 18,905 contracts in the latest week from 31,431 contracts in the prior week. [ID:nN06202899]

The dollar was little changed against the yen at 89.91 yen JPY=.

Dealers also cited an International Monetary Fund report as weighing on the dollar. The report noted while the dollar had depreciated in recent months, it still remained on the "strong" side. See r.reuters.com/kyp48f.

In other news, the head of the Federal Reserve's St. Louis branch, James Bullard, told the Financial Times he did not favor monetary tightening until the recovery was well-established and suggested rates could stay near zero for all of next year. [ID:nN08210474]

Investors will be watching to see how U.S. Treasury yields respond to this week's record quarterly refunding by the Treasury, while also keeping an eye on a batch of Chinese data for October due on Wednesday, which will include the consumer price index, industrial output data and retail sales. ECONCN

(Additional reporting by Jamie McGeever in London) (Reporting by Nick Olivari; Editing by Andrew Hay)



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