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INSTANT VIEW: Consumer confidence falls in April

NEW YORK
Fri Apr 11, 2008 10:26am EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence fell to its lowest in more than a quarter century in early April, diving deeper into recessionary territory on heightened worries over inflation and jobs, a survey showed on Friday.

KEY POINTS: * The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its preliminary index of confidence fell to 63.2 in April from 69.5 in March. * This was well below economists' median expectation of a reading of 69.0, according to a Reuters poll. * The April result is the lowest since March 1982's level of 62.0, when the "stagflationary" period of low growth and high inflation was still fresh in the memory of many Americans.

COMMENTS:

DOUG ROBERTS, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, CHANNEL CAPITAL RESEARCH, SHREWSBURY, NEW JERSEY:

"Consumer sentiment came in worse-than-expected. The interesting thing is the Treasury market doesn't seem to have reacted that much, nor equities. The report was overshadowed by the GE announcement which gave everybody a shock and was totally unexpected."

"You could be into a short term stabilization period for both markets if you don't see this massive influx into Treasuries. The sentiment is very thick on pessimism."

CARL LANTZ, INTEREST RATE STRATEGIST, CREDIT SUISSE, NEW YORK:

"It's really bad. We are definitely in recession territory. It confirms what we already know now that we are in consumer-led recession, and it's going to be a pretty protracted one. Housing has been at the root of it and it's going to take a long time to sort it out."

CARY LEAHEY, ECONOMIST, DECISION ECONOMICS, NEW YORK:

"It's a pretty dismal report. Consumer sentiment is at levels last seen in the 1980s and not seen in the last two downturns. Consumers have a lot of reasons to be in a funk: high real oil prices, a stalled labor market, falling home prices, rising inflation and a credit crunch."

MEG BROWNE, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, BROWN BROTHERS HARRIMAN, NEW YORK:

"It is much weaker than expected. This is an April number so one of the first reads on April. It suggests what we know, that the U.S. economy in the first half will be stagnant. The Fed has already noted the risk of recession in the first half and the dollar hasn't reacted aggressively. We are in a technical market rather than a fundamental one."

MARKET REACTION: * BONDS: U.S. Treasury debt prices briefly extend gains. * CURRENCIES: The dollar extends losses versus the yen. * STOCKS: U.S. stock indexes extend losses. * RATE FUTURES: Rate futures pricing in slightly more than 50 percent chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at the next meeting.



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