INSTANT ANALYSIS - No dramatic change seen in S.Africa

(Reuters) - South African President Thabo Mbeki agreed on Saturday to resign after his ruling African National Congress demanded that he step down.

Following are some of the political and diplomatic consequences of the move:

CONTROL OF GOVERNMENT

-- The ANC will move quickly to name Mbeki's successor who will head a transitional government until elections in 2009. The new leader could emerge from the cabinet but is more likely to be somebody close to ANC leader Jacob Zuma but not Zuma himself.

-- Some members of the cabinet, including Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka and Public Enterprises Minister Alec Erwin, will most probably resign. Most of the others are expected to abide by the ANC's request that they remain in their posts.

-- Zuma, the frontrunner to win the next presidential election, will play a more active role in steering the government and attempt to unify the party before an election is called early next year.

DIRECTION OF POLICY

-- The new government will be more focused on fighting poverty and high unemployment but is not expected to make drastic changes to the pro-business policies credited for the country's nearly decade-long economic growth.

-- The powerful trade unions and the small but influential communist party, the backing of which helped Zuma defeat Mbeki for the party leadership, will have a greater say in a new administration.

-- Finance Minister Trevor Manuel, central bank governor Tito Mboweni and other key members of the government will be expected to reassure investors that the country is not abandoning its conservative fiscal and monetary policies.

FOREIGN POLICY

-- The next government is seen placing less emphasis on foreign policy while continuing Mbeki's policies in core areas, including support for a power-sharing government in Zimbabwe and reform of the United Nations and other world institutions.

-- South Africa's influence overseas could be dented by the loss of Mbeki, who has successfully mediated an end to a number of African conflicts and acted as a broker between rich industrialized nations and the developing world.

(Writing by Paul Simao; editing by Elizabeth Piper)