INSTANT VIEW: Key points and reaction to retail sales

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Total sales at U.S. retailers weakened modestly in April, the government reported on Tuesday, but outside the hard-pressed auto sector they showed more resiliency than many analysts had anticipated.

KEY POINTS: * The Commerce Department said overall retail sales declined 0.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted $378.1 billion, after a 0.2 percent rise in March. That was slightly more than the 0.1 percent decrease that economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast for sales in April. * But excluding autos, April sales were up 0.5 percent after a 0.4 percent March pickup - significantly better than the 0.2 percent sales increase that had been anticipated. * The Federal Reserve has cut official interest rates 3-1/4 percentage points to 2 percent since last September to shield the economy from a credit crunch sparked by the housing crisis, hoping to keep consumers from choking off spending that fuels two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. * In April, sales of building materials gained 1.9 percent, more than reversing March's 1.5 percent fall. General merchandise store sales were up 0.5 percent, well ahead of March's 0.1 percent rise.

COMMENTS:

ROBERT MACINTOSH, CHIEF ECONOMIST, EATON VANCE CORP,

BOSTON:

"The retail sales number is pretty much what people thought. They thought it would be off a little bit for the month. The key here is ex-autos and gas, the number was up a fair amount. So net , I think it's a report that tells you the economy is very weak, but if we are in a recession it's going to be a real short one."

IAN SHEPHERDSON, CHIEF U.S. ECONOMIST, HIGH FREQUENCY

ECONOMICS, VALHALLA, NEW YORK:

"Half the rise in sales ex-autos was due to a 0.5 percent increase in food sales, thanks largely to higher prices, and a 1.9 percent rebound in sales of building materials, etc. The latter is trending rapidly downwards - even after the April rise sales have fallen at a 6.7 percent annualized rate in the past three months compared to the previous three months - but the monthly data are noisy. Expect a big drop next month. Sales ex-food, gas, autos and building mats rose 0.3 percent in both March and April but the year-over-year rate is trending remorselessly lower; worse to come."

KURT KARL, CHIEF U.S. ECONOMIST, SWISS RE, NEW YORK:

"Excluding autos, the report was pretty decent. And that's good because it doesn't point to recession. The consumer is still out there spending. But recent data has been mixed and judging by it it's been hard to say where inflation is going and where growth is going. For the Fed, a 2 percent benchmark rate is a comfortable place to seat for a while."

MICHELLE MEYER, ECONOMIST, LEHMAN BROTHERS, NEW YORK:

"It was considerably better than expected. The headline number declined but it was entirely an auto story, which was to be expected. Outside autos, the spending is certainly above expectations and it seems to be widespread. It's consistent with the Fed on hold for the near-term, and it does suggest growth will be a little stronger in the first and second quarters."

SUBODH KUMAR, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, SUBODH KUMAR &

ASSOCIATES, TORONTO, CANADA:

"The retail sales data and what Bernanke had to say I think indicate that the Fed won't be cutting rates. I think the rate-cutting cycle has bottomed, so that might bring some confidence into the dollar.

"On the stock market, the area to watch is the M&A activity in technology and you want to keep watching the recovery in financial stocks. But whether the retail sales numbers themselves will push up consumer discretionary stocks, I'm not so sure. The main issues facing the consumer are still out there, like higher gasoline prices.

"The market direction will be set by things like technology and financials."

KEITH HEMBRE, CHIEF ECONOMIST, FIRST AMERICAN FUNDS,

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA:

"It's a bit stronger than expected. It's somewhat surprising that building materials were up as much as they were in April, almost a 2 percent increase there, and furniture sales up 0.1 -- you'd certainly expect to see a negative number there given what's going on in housing.

"If you take the ex-autos, building materials and gas reading, up 0.4 percent for the month, that number feeds right into the consumption categories of GDP. My expectation was that that number would probably be weaker than what it was.

"It puts first quarter consumer spending on a much better footing than would have anticipated and with regard to expecting a contraction of activity in the first quarter this kind of argues against that."

DOUG ROBERTS, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, CHANNEL CAPITAL

RESEARCH, SHREWSBURY, NEW JERSEY:

"You have the consumer still spending, albeit meekly, as indicated by the ex-autos retail sales."

"Inflation as seen in the import prices, still rears its ugly head and will remain a concern concentrated in the long end of the Treasury market."

RON SIMPSON, DIRECTOR OF CURRENCY STRATEGY, ACTION

ECONOMICS, TAMPA, FLORIDA:

"U.S. retail sales ex-autos were better-than-expected and that helped the dollar. We saw stock futures pare losses and that helped dollar/yen get over 104 yen. Overall, this supports the view that the Fed will hold interest rates for the next two to three meetings."

MARKET REACTION: * BONDS: U.S. Treasuries fall, turn negative on session * CURRENCIES: U.S. dollar firmed against the euro and yen * STOCKS: U.S. equity index futures turned positive on session * RATE FUTURES: U.S. short-term interest rate futures fell, pointing to 10 percent chance of June rate cut versus a 16 percent chance before the retail numbers.