Mexico peso, stocks gain on US recovery bets

MEXICO CITY, May 25 (Reuters) - Mexico's peso firmed on Monday and stocks rose ahead of U.S. data this week that could suggest the recession is moderating in the United States, Mexico's top trading partner.

The peso MXN=MEX01 gained 0.09 percent to 13.145 per dollar in low-volume trading as U.S. markets were closed for a public holiday. The IPC stock index .MXX rose 0.33 percent to 24,173 points.

Mexico's peso has rallied 18 percent from a 16-year low hit in March on hopes the U.S. recession is finding a bottom, which would point toward a recovery in Mexico, since it sends more than 80 percent of its exports to its northern neighbor.

This week's key U.S. data include a reading of consumer confidence on Tuesday, durable goods orders for April on Thursday and revised first-quarter gross domestic product growth on Friday.

"We expect the exchange rate to oscillate between 13.00 and 15.00 per dollar, depending on how U.S. activity develops in the coming days," Mexico City-based brokerage Invex wrote in a report.

Last week, the Mexican currency hit its strongest level in six months. But worries that Mexico's downturn could be deeper than expected have kept the currency from holding onto gains below 13 per dollar, analysts said.

Ixe brokerage in Mexico City said it would likely take three or four weeks for the peso to decidedly break below last week's highs around 12.85 per dollar.

"That depends on a better atmosphere, continued gains in stock markets and that the United States can keep confirming a certain recovery," Ixe wrote.

In debt trading, the government's benchmark 10-year peso bond MX10YT=RR rose 0.138 of a point in price, pushing its yield down 2 basis points to 7.75 percent.

In stock trading, shares in Cemex (CMXCPO.MX), the world's No. 3 cement maker, gained 0.96 percent to 12.66 pesos.

Miners also rose. Penoles (PENOLES.MX) gained 2.21 percent to 204.50 pesos while copper producer Grupo Mexico (GMEXICOB.MX) added 1.31 percent to 12.33 pesos. (Reporting by Michael O'Boyle; Editing by Dan Grebler)