SCENARIOSP: Swing-vote senators' influence may rise

(Reuters) - A handful of moderate U.S. senators, who sometimes cross party lines to vote with members of the opposite political party, could find themselves in a more powerful position in 2009.

They are mainly swing-vote Republicans, who could cast their lot with Democrats on some key issues next year. The combination could give Democrats the 60 votes they need to overcome procedural hurdles that otherwise delay or kill legislation.

If Democrats do well enough in the November 4 elections and hold 60 seats on their own next year, these moderate Republicans would likely still be influential on the most controversial, divisive bills.

While some Republicans' influence could rise next year, at least one Democratic senator could see his wane: Sen. Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, the Democrat-turned-independent who still caucuses with Democrats but was an active supporter of Republican presidential candidate John McCain.

If Democrats hit the 60-seat mark, they likely will strip him of his chairmanship of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee.

The following moderate Republican senators could be courted by Democrats to back their initiatives next year:

* Susan Collins of Maine, assuming she wins re-election, has bucked Republican leaders in the past by voting to maintain a ban on oil drilling in protected areas of Alaska and against conservative social issues, such as banning same sex marriage and imposing new limits on abortion. She also has voted in favor of expanded stem cell research and providing illegal immigrants a path to U.S. citizenship. In 2003, Collins pushed for smaller tax cuts than President George W. Bush wanted.

* Olympia Snowe, also of Maine, has voted for increases to the federal minimum wage and, like Collins, has opposed many conservative social initiatives. She also breached Republican doctrine in 2004 when she argued for applying "pay as you go" budget rules to tax cuts as well as spending increases.

* Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania was instrumental in defeating Republican President Ronald Reagan's nomination of Robert Bork to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court. More recently, he opposed limits Bush sought on medical malpractice lawsuits and butted heads with the Bush administration on FISA electronic surveillance legislation.

* Gordon Smith of Oregon, if he wins on November 4, has worked closely with Democratic Sen. Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts on legislation to impose tougher penalties for crimes committed because of a victim's sexual orientation, gender or disability. While he voted for the Iraq war resolution in 2002, he turned into an opponent of the war by 2006. Smith also has supported imposing higher gasoline mileage for U.S. built cars, something many Republicans opposed.

* George Voinovich of Ohio, like some other Republicans, worked to narrow the size and cost of Bush's signature tax cuts and voted against some Republican budget plans. In 2005, Voinovich spoke out emotionally against Bush's choice of John Bolton to be U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.

(Sources: Reuters, The Almanac of American Politics)

(Reporting by Richard Cowan, editing by David Alexander and Cynthia Osterman)