SCENARIOS: Where does Thailand's crisis head next?

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's Constitutional Court is expected to meet on Tuesday to decide whether to dissolve the ruling People Power Party (PPP) for vote fraud in a December 2007 election.

All politicians and analysts expect the verdict to go against Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat, plunging the country into a fresh round of chaos and raising the prospect of a violent backlash by government supporters.

The following scenarios, based on comments from analysts, political players and media reports, look at how things might pan out:

CONSTITUTIONAL PARALYSIS

- An adverse court ruling will see Somchai and many cabinet ministers barred from politics for five years.

However, most rank-and-file PPP MPs will escape the ban and simply switch to Puea Thai (For Thailand), a "shell" party already lined up for just such an eventuality.

An election will not necessarily ensue.

As long as the six-party ruling coalition hangs together -- and so far it has shown no signs of cracking -- Puea Thai will have the parliamentary numbers needed to choose a new prime minister and thereby form the next administration.

The only problem will be getting parliament to convene.

It is slated to hold a special session on December 8-9 to approve various international agreements postponed from last week due to a blockade of the building by thousands of People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) protesters.

There is no doubt that the PAD, which believes the PPP is simply a front for ousted and exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, will come out in droves to stop the meeting.

If parliament cannot meet, Thailand will be that much closer to constitutional paralysis, without any real government.

Various reports doing the rounds of Bangkok's chattering classes suggest the judiciary will break the deadlock by suspending the constitution and appointing an interim council, mainly of judges, to run the country.

STREET VIOLENCE

- The pro-government Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship (DAAD) has already condemned the above scenario as a "judicial coup," executed "by the gowns, not the tanks," and has promised to mass its supporters near the court in time for the verdict.

It is not clear whether they intend to blockade the court building, as the PAD has done for the last week with Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi airport, but the DAAD did gather 20,000 supporters on Sunday at a peaceful rally very close by.

At any point in the above scenario, DAAD anger at what is seen as the Bangkok elite stealing control of the country from an elected government may boil over into a full-frontal assault on the PAD or its allies in the opposition Democrat party.

Any major street violence could well trigger a military coup, even though the army, whose natural sympathies lie with the elitist and royalist PAD, is loath to intervene since it will then be the target of DAAD wrath.

AND THE AIRPORT?

- The PAD has said all along its people will not leave Suvarnabhumi until Somchai, Thaksin's brother-in-law, has quit.

The court ruling therefore gives it a face-saving exit route from the blockade, which is costing the economy millions of dollars a day and losing the PAD its more moderate support as well as some of its corporate backers.

However, the PAD knows it has the government over a barrel with the occupation of the $4 billion airport, and, as with all the other strategic and symbolic sites it has captured in the past six months, it could well be reluctant to retreat.

It is worth noting that PAD leaders have said Somchai's departure was a precondition for them considering leaving, rather than simply leaving.

KING STEPS IN

- It is not known what King Bhumibol Adulyadej thinks about the PAD and its central claim to be protecting the monarchy from an alleged Thaksin plot to turn Thailand into a republic.

However, the revered monarch has been openly critical of government economic policy, and his wife, Queen Sirikit, has attended the funeral of a woman protester killed in clashes with police in October, raising fears the monarchy's official political neutrality has been compromised.

The king is due to address the nation on Thursday, on the eve of his 81st birthday. Previous speeches in the past three years of high political tension have been nuanced and balanced, and focused on the need for tolerance and national unity.

Feuding politicians have normally expressed wholehearted agreement with the king, before resuming hostilities.

(Writing by Ed Cropley; Editing by Darren Schuettler and Sanjeev Miglani)