INSTANT VIEW: Russia-Ukraine row hits European gas supplies
(Reuters) - Russia's gas dispute with Ukraine has cut supplies to Turkey and a swathe of European countries, threatening disruption as far west as Italy and Germany.
Following are comments from analysts:
DMITRY GOUROV, AN ANALYST AT UNICREDIT:
"A quick solution to the crisis seems to be receding."
"Most CEE countries are now facing lower gas supply, adding further to downside risks to growth. Although local policymakers are relatively confident about gas reserves we see growth of those countries most at risk which have energy intensive production, use a high percentage of gas in their total energy consumption and import a high proportion of gas from Russia.
"In CEE these are Slovakia, Hungary and to lesser extent Poland and Czech Republic (given lower gas usage in their total energy consumption).
"This January, Kiev looks to be more prepared for a prolonged defense - Ukraine has 22 percent of its annual consumption in storage (17 billion cubic meters, according to Naftogaz), allowing it to sit through the conflict, while the November 29 percent year-on-year collapse in industrial production further abates demand for gas.
"However with temperatures in Kiev approaching minus 20 degrees Celsius, gas is needed. And the politician who takes tribute for "solving" the crisis will be well positioned for upcoming presidential elections - something easily remembered by the population."
TANYA COSTELLO, AN ANALYST AT EURASIA GROUP IN LONDON:
"What we're going to end up with is Ukraine and Naftogaz paying lower than $450 (per tcm), somewhere around the $250 mark, but with Ukraine maybe having to make concessions in other areas.
"We don't know with any accuracy what is being discussed but there are other issues being discussed, such as whether or not RosUkrEnergo will stay in place, it's a sensitive issue for both sides.
"They may also be talking about the old story, of Gazprom taking more control of Ukraine's pipeline network. In these difficult economic times, I don't think Ukraine would be willing to give Gazprom ownership in these pipelines.
"This could be discussed again. So it's not just the price they are talking about and there are other concessions that Ukraine can make."
PETER KADERJAK, DIRECTOR OF THE REGIONAL CENTRE FOR ENERGY
POLICY RESEARCH, BUDAPEST:
"The current restriction on gas shipments to Europe is unprecedented and scandalous. The European Union should put strong pressure (on Russia) for this problem to be resolved.
"The bad thing in the current crisis is that it's unclear what the Russians would accept as the price for the solution. The worst version is if they want the ownership of the pipeline system.
"My guess is that this (crisis) will not last longer than a couple of days as a lot of EU countries have been directly affected and the crisis can also reach Germany."
DARKO KOVACIC OF RAIFFEISEN BANK IN MARIBOR, SLOVENIA:
"I believe this gas crisis will not have a big impact on the European Union's economy as the pressure of the EU on Russia and Ukraine is big, and this will result in the resumption of regular supplies."
SIMON BLAKEY, DIRECTOR OF EUROPEAN RESEARCH AT CAMBRIDGE
ENERGY RESEARCH ASSOCIATES:
"If there are significant drops in supplies to the European Union, the key question is whether it goes on for a very long time. But it would have to go on for weeks or months for serious problems to arise for Western European customers.
"It is not clear how Ukraine is going to obtain cash to pay for gas deliveries in 2009 and beyond. Equally on the Russian side, the Russians are not financially in a position to be banker of last resort for the Ukrainians. Put those together and, because of the financial crisis, this is potentially a more intractable dispute than previous ones have been.
"There is a curious paradox: the tone of this dispute is more modest, and the operational and physical drama is comparable to previous disputes, but the underlying financial conditions are such that this is a difficult one to solve."
