DUBLIN--(Business Wire)--
Research and Markets
(http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/2d3755/peru_oil_and_gas_r) has
announced the addition of the "Peru Oil and Gas Report Q4 2009" report to their
offering.
This Peru Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists,
corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and
regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on
Peru's oil and gas industry
The latest Peru Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will
account for 2.19% of Latin America regional oil demand by 2013, while providing
1.23% of supply. Latin America regional oil use of 6.93mn barrels per day (b/d)
in 2001 reached 7.95mn b/d in 2008. It should average 7.73mn b/d in 2009 and
then rise to around 8.48mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 10.30mn b/d
in 2001, and in 2008 averaged 9.85mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.58mn b/d by
2013. Oil exports are slipping, because demand growth is exceeding the pace of
supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 3.37mn b/d. This
total had fallen to 1.90mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to be 2.13mn b/d in 2013.
The principal exporters will be Mexico, Venezuela, Ecuador and Brazil.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed 205.6bn cubic metres (bcm),
with demand of 243.6bcm targeted for 2013, representing 18.2% growth. Production
of 212.3bcm in 2008 should reach 280.4bcm in 2013, and implies 36.8bcm of net
exports the end of the period. Peru is not yet a significant regional gas
producer or consumer but by 2013 its share of regional demand should be 1.81%,
while it will account for 4.99% of supply.
For 2009 as a whole, the publisher is now assuming an average OPEC basket price
of US$55.00 per barrel (bbl), a 41.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This
represents an upgrade from the US$52 forecast they have stuck with during the
past three quarters. Their OPEC basket assumption delivers likely Brent, WTI,
Urals and Dubai prices of US$56.30, US$57.50, US$55.60 and US$55.60/bbl
respectively. For 2010, the publisher expects to see a recovery to US$60.00/bbl
for the OPEC price (up from their previous forecast of US$58), gaining further
ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and to US$70.00/bbl in 2012. Their post-2010
forecasts are unchanged and the publisher is continuing to use a long-term price
assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018.
In 2009, BMI is now assuming a global average gasoline price of US$62.12/bbl,
with the fuel having peaked in June. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline
prices is put at 40.0%. The BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of
US$68.62/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$92.49/bbl in December. The fullyear
outturn represents a 43.4% fall from the 2008 level. The annual jet price level
for 2009 is forecast to be US$65.17/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in
2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$49.06/bbl, down 43.9%
from the previous year's level.
Peruvian real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 3.2% for 2009, down from 9.8%
in 2008. The publisher is assuming 3.8% growth in 2010, 4.5% in 2011, 3.4% in
2012 followed by 4.2% in 2013. The publisher is assuming oil and gas liquids
production of 130,000b/d by 2012/2013, with the country expected to pump
119,000b/d in 2009. Consumption, beyond expected 2009 weakness, is forecast to
increase by 2-3% per annum to 2013, implying demand of 185,000b/d by the end of
the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately
55,000b/d by 2013. Gas production is forecast to increase from an estimated
3.4bcm in 2008 to 14.0bcm over the period, with net exports of up to 9.6bcm by
2013.
Between 2008 and 2018, the publisher is forecasting a decrease in Peruvian oil
production of 16.2%, with crude and gas liquids volumes peaking at 130,000b/d in
2012/13, before falling steadily 101,000b/d at the end of the 10-year forecast
period. Oil consumption between 2008 and 2018 is set to increase by 19.0%, with
growth slowing to an assumed 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period and
the country using 205,000b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise
steadily, from around 3.4bcm in 2008 to 20.0bcm in 2018. With demand growth of
108.4%, this implies export potential rising from 0.7bcm in 2009 to 12.9bcm in
2018. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this
report.
Peru now ranks third in BMI's updated Upstream Business Environment rating, in
spite of its modest hydrocarbons resource base. It has this quarter been
overtaken by the better-endowed Venezuela. While Peru's absolute resource base
may be small, the output growth outlook is excellent, reserves-toproduction
ratios (RPR) are above the regional average, and licensing terms are
particularly attractive.
Key Topics Covered:
* Executive Summary
* SWOT Analysis
* Peru Energy Market Overview
* Business Environment Ranking
* Business Environment
* Company Monitor
* Glossary of Terms
* Methodology & Risks To Forecasts
Companies Mentioned:
* Petróleos Del Perú (Petroperú)
* Repsol YPF Peru
* Sapet Peru/CNPC
* Maple Gas
* Pluspetrol Norte
* Hunt Oil
* SK Corporation
* Petrobras
* ConocoPhillips
* Reliance Industries
* Petro-Tech
For more information visit
http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/2d3755/peru_oil_and_gas_r
Research and Markets
Laura Wood, Senior Manager,
press@researchandmarkets.com
U.S. Fax: 646-607-1907
Fax (outside U.S.): +353-1-481-1716
Copyright Business Wire 2009
