DUBLIN--(Business Wire)--
Research and Markets
(http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/40e935/kuwait_oil_and_gas) has
announced the addition of the "Kuwait Oil and Gas Report Q4 2009" report to
their offering.
The Kuwait Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists,
corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and
regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on
Kuwait's oil and gas industry.
The latest Kuwait Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will
account for 2.71% of Middle East (ME) regional oil demand by 2013, while
providing 10.35% of supply. Regional oil use of 8.24mn barrels per day (b/d) in
2001 rose to 11.25mn b/d in 2008. It should average 11.30mn b/d in 2009 and then
rise to around 12.17mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 22.87mn b/d in
2001 and in 2008 averaged 26.29mn b/d. It is set to rise to 28.01mn b/d by 2013.
Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of
supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 14.63mn b/d. This
total had risen to 15.04mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to reach 15.84mn b/d by
2013. Iraq has the greatest production growth potential, followed by Qatar.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed 391.5bn cubic metres (bcm),
with demand of 512.8bcm targeted for 2013, representing 31.0% growth. Production
of 389.5bcm in 2008 should reach 610.4bcm in 2013 (+56.7%), which implies net
exports rising to 98bcm by the end of the period. Kuwait in 2008 consumed 3.27%
of the region's gas, with its market share forecast at 4.93% by 2013. It
contributed 3.29% to 2008 regional gas production and by 2013 will account for
3.16% of supply. For 2009 as a whole, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket
price of US$55.00 per barrel (bbl), a 41.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This
represents an upgrade from the US$52 forecast we have stuck with during the past
three quarters. Our OPEC basket assumption delivers likely Brent, WTI, Urals and
Dubai prices of US$56.30, US$57.50, US$55.60 and US$55.60/bbl respectively. For
2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$60.00/bbl for the OPEC price (up from
our previous forecast of US$58), gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and
to US$70.00/bbl in 2012. Our post-2010 forecasts are unchanged and we are
continuing to use a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018. In
2009, BMI is now assuming a global average gasoline price of US$62.12/bbl, with
the fuel having peaked in June. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices
is put at 40.0%. The BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of
US$68.62/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$92.49/bbl in December. The fullyear
outturn represents a 43.4% fall from the 2008 level. The annual jet price level
for 2009 is forecast to be US$65.17/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in
2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$49.06/bbl, down 43.9%
from the previous year's level.
Kuwaiti real GDP is now forecast by BMI to fall by 1.0% in 2009, following
growth of 6.3% in 2008. We are assuming 2.1% growth in 2010, 2.5% in 2011,
followed by 3.4% in 2012 and 3.7% in 2013. We expect oil demand to rise from
300,000b/d in 2008 to 330,000b/d in 2013, lagging the underlying rate of
economic expansion. State oil company Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) is
responsible for all domestic oil and gas operations. In spite of the absence of
near-term international oil company (IOC) investment, crude production is
forecast to increase from 2.78mn b/d in 2008 to 2.90mn b/d in 2013, subject to
OPEC quotas. Gas production should reach 19.3bcm by 2013, up from 12.8bcm in
2008. Consumption is expected to rise from 12.8bcm to 25.3bcm by the end of the
forecast period, requiring imports of 6.0bcm.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Kuwaiti oil production
of 29.3%, with crude volumes rising steadily to 3.60mn b/d by the end of the
10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2008 and 2018 is set to
increase by 29.2%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the
end of the period and the country using 388,000b/d by 2018. Gas production is
expected to climb to almost 27bcm by the end of the period. With 2008-2018
demand growth of 204%, this provides an import requirement rising to more than
12bcm by 2018. Details of the BMI 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix
to this report.
Kuwait still occupies ninth place in BMI's updated Upstream Business Environment
rating, which is a surprising outcome in view of its vast oil and gas wealth. It
is just one place ahead of Saudi Arabia, but should be safe from any immediate
challenge thanks to a comfortable margin. The country's score suffers from
strict government control of the upstream industry, undermining the healthy
resource position. The country is in the lower half of the league table in BMI's
Downstream Business Environment rating, with a few high scores and near-term
progress up the rankings a possibility. It is ranked ninth ahead only of Iraq,
thanks largely to excellent country risk factors that outweigh a highly
regulated and largely statecontrolled industry. Iran and Bahrain are immediately
above it in the regional rankings, but are unlikely to pull further away during
the next few quarters.
Key Topics Covered:
* Executive Summary
* SWOT Analysis
* Regional Energy Market Overview
* Business Environment Ranking
* Business Environment
* Macroeconomic Outlook
* Competitive Landscape
* Company Monitor
* Glossary of Terms
* Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
* BMI Forecast Modelling
Companies Mentioned:
* Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC)
* Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC)
For more information visit
http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/40e935/kuwait_oil_and_gas
Research and Markets
Laura Wood, Senior Manager
press@researchandmarkets.com
U.S. Fax: 646-607-1907
Fax (outside U.S.): +353-1-481-1716
Copyright Business Wire 2009
