The Conference Board Leading Economic INdex(TM) (LEI) For Japan and related
composite Economic indexes for September 2009
NEW YORK, Nov. 10 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic
Index(TM) (LEI) for Japan increased 2.4 percent, and The Conference Board
Coincident Economic Index(TM) (CEI) increased 0.2 percent in September.
-- The Conference Board LEI for Japan increased again in September, and it
has risen sharply for the last seven months. Apart from stock prices
and dwelling units started, all the other leading indicators made
positive contributions to the index this month. The leading economic
index increased by 18.6 percent (a 40.6 percent annual rate) in the six
months ending in September 2009 - the highest six-month growth rate
since the index started in 1965 and a sharp reversal from the 22.4
percent decline (about a -39.7 percent annual rate) during the previous
six months. Moreover, the strengths among the leading indicators have
remained widespread in recent months.
-- The Conference Board CEI for Japan increased for the sixth consecutive
month in September. With this increase, the six-month growth rate of
the index continued to pick up, to 2.6 percent (a 5.3 percent annual
rate) from March to September 2009, well above the 8.8 percent decline
(about a -16.8 percent annual rate) during the previous six months.
Additionally, in the last six months, the strengths among the
coincident indicators have become more widespread than the weaknesses
for the first time since the beginning of 2008. At the same time, real
GDP growth was revised down from 3.7 percent (annual rate) to 2.3
percent for the second quarter of 2009, due to adjustments in private
sector inventory and investments. However, this is the first increase
in GDP in more than a year and is a large improvement from the 12.4
percent contraction in the first quarter of 2009.
-- After declining sharply from the third quarter of 2008, The Conference
Board LEI for Japan has risen strongly since March this year, and its
six-month growth rate has continued to accelerate. Meanwhile, The
Conference Board CEI for Japan also began to increase in the second
quarter, and its six-month growth rate has picked up further. Taken
together, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic
activity will likely continue to improve, but perhaps at a modest pace
in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Eight of the ten components that make up The Conference
Board LEI for Japan increased in September. The positive contributors to the
index - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest -
include the six month growth rate of labor productivity, the new orders for
machinery and construction component*, the index of overtime worked, the
(inverted) business failures, real operating profits*, the Tankan business
conditions survey, the interest rate spread, and real money supply. The
negative contributors include stock prices and dwelling units started.
With the increase of 2.4 percent in September, The Conference Board LEI for
Japan now stands at 86.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index
increased 2.9 percent in August and increased 3.5 percent in July. During the
six-month span through September, the index increased 18.6 percent, and eight
of the ten components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 80.0
percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components that make up The
Conference Board CEI for Japan increased in September. The positive
contributors to the index - in order from the largest positive contributor to
the smallest - include industrial production, number of employed persons, and
wage and salary income. The retail, wholesale, and manufacturing sales*
component declined in September.
With the increase of 0.2 percent in September, The Conference Board CEI for
Japan now stands at 94.8 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index
increased 0.4 percent in August and increased 0.4 percent in July. During the
six-month span through September, the index increased 2.6 percent, and three
of the four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0
percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY AND NOTES. The data series used to compute The Conference
Board Leading Economic Index(TM) (LEI) for Japan and The Conference Board
Coincident Economic Index(TM) (CEI) for Japan reported in this release are
those available "as of" 5:00 P.M. ET November 9, 2009. Some series are
estimated as noted below.
* The series in The Conference Board LEI that are based on our estimates are
real operating profits and new orders for machinery. The series in The
Conference Board CEI that is based on our estimates is real manufacturing
sales.
Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
2009 6-month
Jul Aug Sep Mar to Sep
Leading Economic index (LEI) 81.7 p 84.1 p 86.1 p
Percent Change 3.5 p 2.9 p 2.4 p 18.6 p
Diffusion 90.0 80.0 75.0 80.0
Coincident Economic Index (CEI) 94.2 p 94.6 p 94.8 p
Percent Change 0.4 p 0.4 p 0.2 p 2.6 p
Diffusion 87.5 75.0 75.0 75.0
n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved
Website: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/
The next release is scheduled for Wednesday, December 9, 2009 at 10:00 A.M.
(JST)
In the U.S - Tuesday, December 8, 2009 at 8:00 P.M. (ET)
SOURCE The Conference Board
Indicator Program, +1-212-339-0330, indicators@conference-board.org, or Frank
Tortorici, +1-908-875-8908, all of The Conference Board
