DUBLIN--(Business Wire)--
Research and Markets
(http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/8267cc/3q09_mexico_mobile) has
announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.'s new report "3Q09 Mexico
Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013" to their offering.
Total wireless subscribers in Mexico to reach 110.3 million in 2013 with Telcel
taking 73.7% market share
Mobile Operator Forecast on Mexico provides over 50 operational and financial
metrics for Mexico's wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the
industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to
2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003
and ending in 1Q2011. Operators covered for Mexico include: Telcel (America
Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.), Iusacell (Grupo Iusacell SAB de CV), Movistar Mexico
(Telefonica S.A.), Unefon S.A., and Nextel International. Our Mobile Operator
Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or
through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile
operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world's population. Our
forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models.
These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that
estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment
data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country;
and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Double-digit subscriber growth continues in Mexico's wireless market, but growth
is slowing down
* +11.8% industry average subscriber growth in 1Q.2009
ARPU levels in Mexico continue to decline
* -3.2% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 1Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber declined at Movistar Mexico in the latest quarter
* +3.0% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 1Q.2009
Positive EBITDA growth continues at Telcel and Movistar Mexico
* +13.5% industry average EBITDA growth in 1Q.2009
So what is Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Mexico to reach 110.3 million in 2013
* We forecast that total wireless subscribers in Mexico will increase from 77.9
million in 2008 to 110.3 million in 2013.
* We expect that the largest operator, Telcel, will see its subscriber base
increase from 56.4 million in 2008 to 81.2 million in 2013.
* Movistar Mexico will remain in the second place with 20.4 million subscribers
in 2013.
* Nextel and Iusacell will remain in the third place and the fourth place with
4.63 million and 3.99 million subscribers respectively in 2013.
Telcel will continue to have subscriber market shares of above 70%
* Telcel will continue to lead Mexico in market shares. Our model predicts that
its subscriber market share will increase from 72.3% in 2008 to 73.7% in 2013.
* We also expect that Nextel's share of total subscribers will increase from
3.5% in 2008 to 4.2% in 2013.
* In contrast, we forecast that Movistar Mexico's market share will decrease
from 19.7% to 18.5% and Iusacell's market share will decrease from 4.5% to 3.6%
over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
Industry average ARPUs in Mexico will continue declining from 2009 to 2013
* Movistar Mexico will continue to receive the lowest ARPU (Average Revenue per
User) in the country. We forecast that its ARPU level will decrease from MXN
(Mexican peso) 133.16 in 2008 to MXN 112.82 in 2013.
* Also, we expect that Telcel's ARPU will fall from MXN 173.54 to MXN 156.93
over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
* Nextel, which receives the highest level of ARPU in Mexico, will see its
monthly ARPU decrease from MXN 777.13 in 2008 to MXN 739.05 in 2013, according
to our model.
Industry average EBITDA margin will improve over the next five years
* We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as
EBITDA/reported revenue) will increase from 44.9% in 2008 to 52.6% in 2013. Our
model predicts that Movistar Mexico's EBITDA margin will rise significantly from
25.8% in 2008 to 38.8% in 2013.
* Also, we expect that the largest operator, Telcel, will see its EBITDA margin
rise from 52.4% in 2008 to 64.1% in 2013.
Companies Mentioned:
* Telcel (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.)
* Iusacell (Grupo Iusacell SAB de CV)
* Movistar Mexico (Telefonica S.A.)
* Unefon S.A.
* Nextel International
For more information visit
http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/8267cc/3q09_mexico_mobile
Research and Markets
Laura Wood, Senior Manager,
press@researchandmarkets.com
U.S. Fax: 646-607-1907
Fax (outside U.S.): +353-1-481-1716
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