5.9Gt CO2e to trade globally in 2009-up 20% in volume-estimates Point Carbon
WASHINGTON--(Business Wire)--
The global carbon market in 2009 will grow by 20% in terms of volume, predicts
Point Carbon, the leading provider of market intelligence, news, analysis,
forecasting and advisory services for the energy and environmental markets.
Point Carbon forecasts that 5.9 billion tonnes (gigatonnes or Gt) of carbon
dioxide equivalent (CO2e) will trade this year, compared to 4.9 Gt in 2008, an
increase of 20%, according to a recent Point Carbon report-Carbon Market
Analyst: Outlook for 2009. However, this increase, to 5.9 Gt, represents
stabilization near the transaction volumes seen in the second half of 2008 and
therefore indicates a levelling off in terms of volume traded. The global CO2e
market this year, according to Point Carbon, will be worth €62.6bn (US $79.7bn),
down 32% compared to €92bn (US $117bn) in 2008. This is given Point Carbon`s
forecast for European Union Allowances (EUA) and secondary Certified Emission
Reduction (sCER) prices in 2009 (as of January 30, 2009), and current carbon
prices for other markets, representing the first year of contraction in terms of
market value since the start of carbon trading.
Taking each market segment separately, the European Union`s Emissions Trading
Scheme (EU ETS) maintains its dominant position as the world`s largest carbon
market with a 24% increase in trade over last year, to 3.8 Gt, primarily due to
increased spot trading activity and despite lower emissions. However, the value
of the EU ETS market, like the global carbon market as a whole, will drop
significantly to €45.2bn (US $58bn), a reduction of 33% on 2008.
Point Carbon foresees a considerable drop in Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
and Joint Implementation (JI) projects, mainly due to the current economic
crisis. Point Carbon predicts primary Certified Emission Reduction (CER) volume,
generated by CDM projects, of 300 Mt in 2009, down 45% on last year, and primary
Emission Reduction Unit (ERU) volumes, generated by JI projects, of 40 Mt, down
44% on 2008.
The good news for the global carbon market, however, lies beyond Europe, the CDM
and JI. According to Point Carbon, the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative
(RGGI), which saw its first forward trades and auctions last year and involves
ten northeastern US states, will see 339 Mt CO2e traded this year, up from 71 Mt
in 2008, giving RGGI a 6% share in the global carbon market by year-end. The
increase is attributed to the fact that this year saw the beginning of RGGI`s
first compliance, with attendant higher auctioning volume and an expected strong
growth in secondary-market activity.
According to Endre Tvinnereim, Senior Analyst and author of the report, "the
economic downturn will hit the value of global carbon markets as a whole but the
US looks set to buck this trend and shows healthy growth."
In addition, the market in Assigned Amount Units (AAU), which enables countries
with emissions lower than their Kyoto targets to sell their surplus carbon
allowances, is forecast to grow steeply to 95Mt in 2009, up from 18Mt last year.
Potential AAU seller countries are Central and Eastern European countries such
as Ukraine, Poland, Hungary, Latvia and the Czech Republic.
Meanwhile, Australia`s federal Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme market will
transact a forecasted 24 Mt this year and Point Carbon foresees 17 Mt CO2e
changing hands in preparation for a mandatory federal cap-and-trade in the US
and Canada.
To see a copy of the report, please contact Jenna Agins.
About Point Carbon
Point Carbon is a world-leading provider of independent news, analysis and
consulting services for European and global power, gas and carbon markets. Point
Carbon`s comprehensive services provide professionals with market-moving
information through monitoring fundamental information, key market players and
business and policy developmentsPoint Carbon`s in-depth knowledge of power, gas
and CO2 emissions market dynamics positions it as the number one supplier of
unrivalled market intelligence on these markets.
Europe
Point Carbon
Candida Jones
PR Manager
Mob: +44 (0) 777 5754 763
cjo@pointcarbon.com
or
Endre Tvinnereim
Senior Analyst
Mob: +47 47 45 61 66
et@pointcarbon.com
or
United States
Intermarket Communications
Jenna Agins, 212-754-5613
jagins@intermarket.com
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