DUBLIN--(Business Wire)--
Research and Markets
(http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/8e27f3/mexico_metals_repo) has
announced the addition of the "Mexico Metals Report Q4 2009" report to their
offering.
Mexico Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate
analysts, metals associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with
independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Mexico's metals industry.
Mexican metals producers are just beginning a slow road to recovery, but the
country's strategic position and competitive advantages should ensure that it
continues to attract investment in expansion of steel mill capacities, according
to BMI's latest Mexico Metals Report.
In the first eight months of 2009, Mexican crude steel output fell 32.7% y-o-y
to 8.59mn tonnes. The fall in output came after a rapid slowdown from September
2008, reaching a monthly output low point of 810,000 tonnes in January and
February 2009. In June-August, monthly output had recovered to around 1.2mn
tonnes; August output was down 23% y-o-y.
The upturn in production was in large part due to the completion of destocking
rather than a growth in demand from steel-using industries. However, with
overall Mexican industrial output stabilising by Q309, BMI believes that the
steel industry has passed its low-point but will not see firm growth until H210
when the US, Mexico's largest steel export market, is expected to revive.
However, domestic consumption will remain lacklustre until the domestic economy
returns to strong rates of growth from 2011. GDP will grow just 0.8% in 2010,
with industrial output shrinking 2.3%.
The economic crisis has put Mexico's hopes of securing a higher rate of growth
over the medium term into jeopardy, and there are lingering uncertainties over
whether it will meet the target of 32mn tpa by 2020. Mexican production capacity
is expanding, yet domestic demand in Mexico for carbon and stainless steel sheet
is falling. BMI estimates that domestic apparent finished steel consumption fell
5.1% in 2008 to around 17mn tonnes. We forecast a further 20% drop to around
13.6mn tonnes in 2009 as key consuming industries have ground to a halt. The
decline in steel demand is related to the decline in Mexico's production of
automotive and white goods as well as the contraction in mining, manufacturing
and construction. Service centres have responded to the collapse in end-customer
demand by cutting inventories and sharply reducing orders from mills.
The upshot of recession will be a 23% fall in hot-rolled steel output to just
11.64mn tonnes. Rebar is set to fall 28% to 2.56mn tonnes and tubes and tube
fittings will fall by 23% to just under 921,000 tonnes. However, BMI anticipates
a strong recovery in output from H210, in line with a recovery in demand and
rapid expansion of capacity. By 2013, crude should exceed 25mn tonnes, an
increase of around 44% over 2008 levels. A large amount of Mexican capacity is
due to come onstream in coming years, but BMI does not believe the domestic
market will recover fast enough to absorb the extra output. Mexican producers
are therefore looking northwards for markets. There is uncertainty over
prospects in end-use markets amid tight lending conditions, which are forcing a
reassessment of major construction projects and manufacturing production. Yet,
the market situation in the US and Canada is deteriorating and producers will
struggle to find buyers over the short term. As a result, steel prices are
dropping just as rapidly in Mexico as in the US, according to reports. On the
upside, it is widely expected that the Mexican industry will face less inflation
pressure and better prices for raw materials than seen in 2008. While Mexico
still has plenty of domestic growth potential (BMI forecasts 2013 apparent
finished steel consumption of 19.09mn tonnes, an increase of 12.8% over 2008),
the recovery will be strongly led by exports as the country makes the most out
of a post-recession scenario where significant amounts of US steelmaking
capacity are permanently taken offline.
Key Topics Covered:
* Executive Summary
* SWOT Analysis
* Global Metals Market Overview
* Industry Forecast Scenario
* Competitive Landscape
* Company Profiles
* Global Assumptions
* BMI Methodology
Companies Mentioned:
* ArcelorMittal
* Altos Hornos de México SA de CV (AHMSA)
For more information visit
http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/8e27f3/mexico_metals_repo
Research and Markets
Laura Wood, Senior Manager,
press@researchandmarkets.com
U.S. Fax: 646-607-1907
Fax (outside U.S.): +353-1-481-1716
Copyright Business Wire 2009
