Japan Leading Economic Indicators and related composite indexes for march 2008
NEW YORK, Sept. 9 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board reports today that the
leading index for Japan decreased 0.5 percent and the coincident index
decreased 0.2 percent in July.
-- The leading index declined again in July. Real money supply, the
Tankan
business conditions survey, real operating profits, and stock prices
continued to contribute negatively to the leading index which fell 4.2
percent (about a -8.2 percent annual rate) from January to July 2008,
the largest decline since late 2001 and about the same rate of decline
seen at the end of 2007. In addition, the weaknesses among the
leading
indicators continued to be very widespread in recent months.
-- The coincident index also declined in July, with employment and wage
and
salary income components making large negative contributions to the
index. With this decrease, the six-month growth rate in the
coincident
index continued to fall, and it is now -1.7 percent (a -3.3 percent
annual rate) in the six-month period through July, well below the 1.0
percent annual rate of growth reached in the second half of 2007. In
addition, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have become
far
more widespread than the strengths in recent months.
-- The leading index has been on a general downtrend for more than a year
now and its rate of decline has accelerated recently. During this
period, weaknesses in both leading and coincident indexes have been
widespread. At the same time, real GDP grew at a 0.3 percent average
annual rate in the first half of 2008 (including a -2.4 percent rate
in
the second quarter, the largest quarterly negative growth in the past
seven years), down from the 1.7 percent average annual rate during the
second half of 2007. The continued widespread declines in both leading
and coincident indexes suggest that the risks for further economic
weakness remain elevated in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the ten components that make up the leading index
increased in July. The positive contributors to the index -- in order from
the largest positive contributor to the smallest -- include interest rate
spread, the six month growth rate of labor productivity, the index of overtime
worked, and the new orders for machinery and construction component*. The
negative contributors -- in order from the largest negative contributor to the
smallest -- include real money supply, the Tankan business conditions survey,
the (inverted) business failures*, stock prices, real operating profits*, and
dwelling units started.
With the decrease of 0.5 percent in July, the leading index now stands at 80.3
(1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 1.5 percent in June
and decreased 0.6 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the
index decreased 4.2 percent, and two of the ten components advanced (diffusion
index, six-month span equals 20.0 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the four components that make up the coincident
index decreased in July. The positive contributors to the index -- in order
from the largest positive contributor to the smallest -- include the retail,
wholesale, and manufacturing sales* component and industrial production.
Number of employed persons and wage and salary income* declined in July.
With the decrease of 0.2 percent in July, the coincident index now stands at
107.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.8 percent in
June and 0.2 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the
index decreased 1.7 percent, and none of the four components advanced
(diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0 percent).
Summary Table of Composite Indexes
2007 6-month
May Jun Jul Jan to Jul
Leading index 81.9 p 80.7 p 80.3 p
Percent Change -0.6 p -1.5 p -0.5 p -4.2 p
Diffusion 40.0 25.0 35.0 20.0
Coincident Index 108.2 r 107.3 p 107.1 p
Percent Change -0.2 r -0.8 p -0.2 p -1.7 p
Diffusion 25.0 0.0 50.0 0.0
n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 1990
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved
Website: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/
The next release of the Japan Composite Indexes is scheduled for
Tuesday, October 7, 2008 at 9:00 P.M. (ET)
In Japan---October 8, 2008 at 10:00 A.M. (JST)
SOURCE The Conference Board
Indicator Program, +1-212-339-0330, indicators@conference-board.org; Media,
Frank Tortorici, +1-212-339-0231, or Carol Courter, +1-212-339-0232, both of
The Conference Board
