Korea Leading Economic Indicators and Related Composite Indexes for June 2008
NEW YORK, Aug. 6 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board announced today that
both the leading and coincident indexes for Korea declined 1.0 percent in
June.
-- The leading index declined sharply again in June, and has been on a
downward trend since the last quarter of 2007. Stock prices, the government
bond yield (inverted), and real exports all made large negative contributions
to the index this month. With June's decline, the six-month growth rate of
the leading index continued to slow, to -2.8 percent (about a -5.4 percent
annual rate) from December to June, down sharply from the most recent peak of
a 10.5 percent annual rate in October 2007. Moreover, the weaknesses among
the leading indicators have continued to be widespread in recent months.
-- The coincident index also declined sharply in June, and the weaknesses
among its components have become more widespread this month. Wholesale and
retail sales again made the largest negative contribution to the index. The
growth rate of the coincident index over the past six months slowed to 0.1
percent (about a 0.1 percent annual rate), down from a 2.6 percent annual rate
during the second half of 2007.
-- The leading index has been on a steep downward trend since the fourth
quarter of 2007, while the coincident index has fluctuated around a flat trend
during this period. At the same time, real GDP grew at a 3.3 percent average
annual rate during the first half of 2008 (including a 3.4 percent annual rate
in the second quarter), down from the 6.2 percent average rate of growth in
the second half of last year. The weaknesses in both leading and coincident
indexes in recent months suggest that economic growth is likely to remain slow
in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Two of the seven components that make up the leading
index increased in June. The positive contributors -- from the larger positive
contributor to the smaller -- were value of machinery orders and the
(inverted) index of inventories to shipments. Negative contributors -- from
the largest negative contributor to the smallest -- were stock prices, the
(inverted) yield of government public bonds, real exports FOB, letter of
credit arrivals, and private construction orders.
With the 1.0 percent decrease in June, the leading index now stands at
173.2 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 1.0 percent in
May and increased 0.1 percent in April. During the six-month span through
June, the leading index decreased 2.8 percent, with two of the seven
components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 28.6 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Only one of the four components that make up the
coincident index increased in June. The positive contributor was total
employment. The wholesale and retail sales component and monthly cash
earnings declined, while industrial production remained unchanged in June.
With the 1.0 percent decrease in June, the coincident index now stands at
170.6 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in
May and decreased 0.6 percent in April. During the six-month span through
June, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, with three of the four
components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
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Summary Table of Composite Indexes
2008 6-month
Apr May Jun Dec to
Jun
Leading index 176.6 174.9 173.2 p
Percent Change 0.1 -1.0 p -1.0 -2.8 p
Diffusion 57.1 14.3 p 28.6 28.6
Coincident Index 171.6 p 172.4 r 170.6 p
Percent Change -0.6 r 0.5 r -1.0 p 0.1 p
Diffusion 75.0 37.5 25.0 75.0
n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 1990
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved
For more information visit our Website:
www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/
The next release is scheduled for Thursday, September 11, 2008
at 9:00 P.M (ET)
In Korea -- Friday, September 12, 2008 at 10:00 A.M. (KOR)
SOURCE The Conference Board
Indicator Program, +1-212-339-0330; or Media, Frank Tortorici,
+1-212-339-0231, or Carol Courter, +1-212-339-0232, both of The Conference
Board
