Matures and Whites for McCain; Echo Boomers, African Americans and
Hispanics for Obama
ROCHESTER, N.Y.--(Business Wire)--
With just six weeks to go until the Democrat and Republican
Presidential conventions, the general election is almost officially
here. Results from a new Harris Poll show that:
-- In a four way race, Barack Obama leads John McCain among
registered voters 44 percent to 35 percent, while Bob Barr,
the Libertarian candidate and Ralph Nader each receive 2
percent. Sixteen percent of registered voters are not sure who
they will vote for yet;
-- John McCain is holding onto just slightly more of his base as
just over three-quarters of Republicans (77%) say they will
vote for him versus just under three-quarters of Democrats
(74%) who will vote for Barack Obama; and,
-- Among Independents, Obama has a 12-point lead (38% to 26%),
but one-quarter of Independents (25%) are not sure, 4 percent
would vote for Bob Barr and 3 percent for Ralph Nader.
These are some of the results of a Harris Poll of 2,690 U.S.
adults surveyed online by Harris Interactive(R) between July 3 and 11,
2008. Like all polls conducted well before an election, this should
not be read as a prediction, but rather as a snap shot of the
presidential "horse race". Additional results include:
-- Half of Matures (those over 63) say they would vote for John
McCain, while three in ten (29%) would vote for Senator Obama,
indicating that some of McCain's strongest support comes from
this generation;
-- Half (51%) of the youngest generation or Echo Boomers (those
aged 18-31) would vote for Barack Obama while just one-quarter
(24%) would vote for Senator McCain;
-- Ninety percent of African Americans are voting for Senator
Obama, as are six in ten Hispanics (60%). Whites, however, are
leaning towards Senator McCain over Senator Obama (40% versus
34%);
-- Over two in five men (42%) and women (43%) say they would vote
for Senator Obama, while over one-third of men (36%) and three
in ten women (30%) would vote for Senator McCain. This
suggests that the gender gap doesn't really exist this year;
and,
-- Half of single women (51%) would vote for Senator Obama while
just one-quarter (25%) would vote for Senator McCain. Married
women are more closely divided - 37 percent would vote for
Obama and 36 percent would vote for McCain.
So What?
While Americans are thinking of summer vacations and the beach,
November 4th may seem like eons away. However, in reality, the
election is just 15 weeks from now. That means that everything from
this point on in time definitely matters.
Regina Corso, Director of The Harris Poll, said, "Senator Obama's
lead seems solid, but there are some troubling spots to watch for in
his campaign. First, Matures are solidly behind John McCain, and this
is a group that goes out and votes in the strongest numbers among all
age groups. Further, the divide among married women is also extremely
close. With almost one-quarter of this group (22%) undecided, the
candidate that can win the lion's share of those undecided Americans
can move these overall numbers."
Methodology
This Harris Poll(R) was conducted online within the United States
between July 3 and 11, 2008 among 2,690 adults (aged 18 and over).
Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household
income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with
their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting
was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.
Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the
Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error
can be calculated. Additional data tables and full methodology are
available at www.harrisinteractive.com.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the
National Council on Public Polls.
J 30279C (July)
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About Harris Interactive
Harris Interactive is a global leader in custom market research.
With a long and rich history in multimodal research, powered by our
science and technology, we assist clients in achieving business
results. Harris Interactive serves clients globally through our North
American, European and Asian offices and a network of independent
market research firms. For more information, please visit
www.harrisinteractive.com.
Harris Interactive
Tracey McNerney, 585-214-7756
press@harrisinteractive.net
Copyright Business Wire 2008
