DUBLIN, Ireland--(Business Wire)--
Research and Markets
(http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/552b38/russia_commercial) has
announced the addition of the "Russia Commercial Banking Report Q4 2008" report
to their offering.
This report is being written at a time when the Global Financial Crisis - which
arose as a result of the evaporation of inter-bank liquidity - appeared to be
moving towards a resolution: the governments of the UK, the USA and most of the
larger countries in the euro area have all announced plans to make funds
available - in one form or another - to their respective commercial banking
sectors. As yet, it is too early to identify the impact of the crisis on
particular emerging markets. However, in the regular section, which discusses
the changes that we are making to the report, we include a lengthy essay which
attempts to identify the key issues. In essence, in the emerging markets (and,
indeed, the developed countries) of the Asia-Pacific, commercial banks appear to
be well placed to deal with the crisis. The same is, broadly, true of commercial
banks in the various countries of the Middle East and North Africa. In Latin
America, Chile, Brazil, Mexico and Colombia appear better placed than Argentina,
Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador. South Africa's situation appears to have much in
common with that of Brazil: by contrast, Nigeria faces some of the same
challenges as those that confront Venezuela. The positions of most countries in
Central and Eastern Europe, however, are alarming.
It has not been practicable for us to collate the latest figures for bank assets
and bank lending this quarter. The global financial situation has been changing
so rapidly that most numbers would have become out of date. Nevertheless, we
expect that, in coming months, it will become obvious that credit growth is
slowing dramatically in most of the countries whose commercial banking sectors
are profiled in BMI's reports. We will amend the figures and indeed our
forecasts - accordingly. Nevertheless, we believe that the figures we compiled
last quarter provide insights as to how the various commercial banking sectors
will fare in the current, extremely uncertain, environment. We have therefore
left them - and the comments on the Key Issues - essentially unchanged.
The figures on the tables above provide a snapshot of the banking sector in the
Czech Republic and the changes that have taken place within it over the last
year. To place the figures in context, it may be useful to bear in mind certain
aspects of the 59 countries whose banking sectors are currently surveyed by BMI.
Across this sample, the median growth in assets in local currency terms was
21.3% (in Colombia). The median loan growth was 21.6% (in India). The median
growth in deposits was 17.9% (in Brazil). On their own, the ratios of loans to
deposits, assets, and GDP mean little. However, they can provide useful hints
when combined with other data. Across the 59 countries, the median loan/deposit
ratio is 92.3% (in Greece). The median loan/asset ratio is 56.0% (in Poland).
The median loan/GDP ratio was 63.9% in India.
From Q308, we have included a section that examines the risks associated with
each country's banking sector in a new way. We have essentially sought to ask
this question: to what extent will the banking sector likely need to source
funding from banks in the rest of the world over the course of 2008? Given that
the answer is not necessarily, on its own, meaningful, we have looked at other
key issues such as the size and recent movement in the loan/deposit ratio,
macro-economic developments and recent movements in financial markets.
In general, the first half of 2008 has been kind to fixed-income investors and
money market participants in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Inter-bank
lending rates have come down, thanks to the actions of the European Central Bank
(ECB) and the Federal Reserve, among others. Benchmark bond yields have
generally fallen in absolute terms and, in some cases, relative to yields in
developed countries. This is in spite of the fact that, in many of the countries
in the region, the statistics from the banking sector are worrying given the
economic imbalances that persist.
As in previous reports, we include a SWOT analysis for the Czech Republic. We
suggest that the two most important strengths of the Czech banking sector remain
the macroeconomic stability in a country that has one of the highest per capita
GDP's in Central and Eastern Europe, and the fact that the system is dominated
by multinational banks who have exhibited discipline in lending. The main
weakness is that the banking sector, which is not large in world terms, is
maturing.
Since Q108, we have calculated, on a consistent basis, a Commercial Bank
Business Environment Rating (CBBER) for each of the 59 countries surveyed. The
CBBER includes an assessment of the limits of potential returns. It does this by
taking into account the size, growth potential and bancassurance potential of
the banking sector, as well as aspects of the economy in 2007. The CBBER also
depends on an assessment of the risks to the realisation of potential returns.
This reflects BMI's assessments of overall country risk, together with the
regulatory and competitive environment.
Russia's overall CBBER is 65.0. Within the limits of potential returns, the
banking market structure and the country structure are relatively close, with
scores of 71.9 and 50.7 respectively. Within the risks to the realisation of
potential returns, the banking marketing risks and the country risks are much
more evenly rated, with scores of 66.7 and 70.0 respectively.
Key Topics Covered:
* Executive Summary
* Key Issues
* Changes To The Commercial Banking Report
* Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating
* Anticipated Development
* Bank Lending
* Country Outlook
* Industry Forecast Scenario
* Banks' Bond Portfolios
* Competitive Landscape And Protagonists
* Methodology
For more information visit
http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/552b38/russia_commercial.
Research and Markets Ltd
Laura Wood
Senior Manager
press@researchandmarkets.com
Fax from USA: 646-607-1907
Fax from rest of the world: +353-1-481-1716
Copyright Business Wire 2009
