India to announce results from key state election
By Rupam Jain Nair
AHMEDABAD, India, Dec 23 (Reuters) - India will announce results from one of its most bitterly fought state polls in years on Sunday, a verdict that will seal the future of a hardline Hindu leader and is likely to have a national impact.
The booming but communally divided western state of Gujarat voted in two stages on Dec. 11 and 16. Millions of electronic ballots are to be counted and the outcome is expected within hours.
It is being closely watched as a barometer of the fortunes of the country's two main parties ahead of national polls. The Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) rules Gujarat while Congress is in power federally.
National polls are due by mid-2009 but could come earlier with the Congress-led coalition in New Delhi wobbling under pressure from key communist allies who oppose a nuclear energy deal with the United States.
Gujarat's controversial and charismatic chief minister, Narendra Modi, remains favourite to win a third straight term but Congress could make surprise gains, analysts say.
Exit polls conducted by television news channels, which have not been entirely accurate in the past, predicted a BJP win but with a loss of a substantial number of seats in the 182-member legislative assembly.
BJP and Congress began their campaigns stressing the importance of development but soon began a war of words over Hindu-Muslim divisions, which affects large parts of Gujarat.
Modi, who stands accused of encouraging communal riots in 2002 in which between 1,200 and 2,500 people were killed -- most of them Muslims, dominates political debate in the state.
During a month-long campaign, Modi was pitted against Sonia Gandhi, the Italian-born head of Congress, and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. They campaigned extensively in Gujarat, where Congress lacks a strong local leader.
"Sonia and Modi have played their cards well. The final result is a suspense at this point of time," said R.P. Pandit, a political science professor at Gujarat University. "Modi could win but it will not be a thumping majority for him."
Modi swept the 2002 state elections, held just nine months after the riots, on an overt pro-Hindu and anti-Muslim platform, winning 127 of the 182 seats.
But this time, he is more vulnerable with several disgruntled party members defecting to the opposition and the minority Muslims voting for Congress, analysts said. (Editing by Y.P. Rajesh and Matthew Tostevin)
