* What: Jan-March earnings at India's top oil firms
* When: Reliance (April 21), ONGC (tbc)
* Reliance earnings seen up 31 percent; ONGC up 61 percent.
By Hiral Vora
MUMBAI, April 17 (Reuters) - India's Reliance Industries
Ltd (RELI.BO) is expected to report quarterly earnings rose by
almost a third, boosted by robust refining margins, while
record oil prices will have driven up profits at Oil and
Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) (ONGC.BO) by more than 60 percent.
Reliance, India's most valuable firm at $93 billion and its
leading private oil company, is expected to ride on strong
refining margins and natural gas sales in the coming quarters.
The company, which may sell a stake in its D6 gas block off
India's east coast to an oil major, is expected to produce up
to 80 million cubic metres of gas per day from its deep-sea
fields in the region from the second half of 2008/09.
"The next few quarters would be primarily driven by gas
sales, apart from refining," said Rohit Nagraj, analyst at
Angel Broking Ltd. "But, delays in signing sales agreements
could hamper growth in the short term."
Reliance is expected to report on Monday that January-March
net profit rose to 37.4 billion rupees ($935 million) from
28.53 billion rupees a year ago, a Reuters poll of 13 analysts
showed.
(See bottom of story for detailed earnings poll)
Profit margins on refining are seen at $14-$16 a barrel,
more than the benchmark Asian crack margin on Dubai crude,
which averaged about $7 a barrel <REF/MARGIN1>, and $13 a
barrel a year ago.
This is because its 600,000 barrel per day refinery in
western India, which contributed 66 percent of Reliance's
revenues in the December quarter, can process cheap
high-sulphur crude to produce high-value products.
ONGC
State-run oil and gas explorer ONGC is expected to report
net profit grew by nearly two-thirds to 43.14 billion rupees
($1.1 billion) from 26.82 billion rupees a year ago.
ONGC, which produces 80 percent of India's crude, is
required by the government to sell oil from its domestic output
at heavy discounts to subsidise state-run refiners in order to
keep retail fuel prices low, which eats into the company's
profits.
Analysts expect ONGC to have sold its crude, benchmarked to
Nigeria's Bonny Light BON-E, at $51-$55 a barrel to refiners,
against a global average of $100 in the quarter.
Local brokerage Motilal Oswal said it expected ONGC to have
offered discounts worth 88 billion rupees for the quarter,
nearly double the 46.7 billion rupees a year ago.
ONGC said in March it aimed to maintain output for 2008/09
with domestic oil production at 29.04 million tonnes and
natural gas output at 25.05 billion cubic metres a year.
Analysts say earnings at ONGC will be boosted in coming
quarters by higher production from its overseas assets.
ONGC Videsh, its overseas investment arm, owns stakes in
oil and gas blocks in Myanmar, Sudan, Russia, Venezuela,
Vietnam, Egypt, Qatar and Brazil and has qualified to bid for
development of Iraqi oil reserves, the world's third-largest.
Full-year 2007/08 earnings for Reliance Industries are seen
up 22 percent at 147 billion rupees and 38 percent for ONGC at
216.21 billion rupees, according to Reuters Estimates.
For 2008/09, Reliance's net profit is seen at 183.2 billion
rupees and ONGC is expected to earn 233.6 billion rupees,
Reuters Estimates show.
Shares in Reliance Industries fell 21.4 percent during the
fiscal fourth quarter, slightly outperforming the sector
index's .BSEOIL 24.7 percent drop, while ONGC fell 20.6
percent.
COMPANY NET PROFIT RANGE % CHANGE QTR SHR P/E
(bln rupees) PERFORMANCE
Reliance 37.40 41.2-26.6 +31 -21.4
21.7
ONGC 43.14 40.9-37.0 +61 -20.6
09.2
NOTE: Estimates compiled from: Lehman Brothers, Merrill
Lynch, Prabhudas Lilladher, CLSA, Macquarie Securities, Morgan
Stanley, Motilal Oswal Securities, Angel Broking, Kotak
Institutional Equities, Religare Securities, Edelweiss, HSBC
and Batliwala & Karani.
($1=40 Indian rupees)
(Editing by Ian Geoghegan)
