Pakistani PM expected to hear price of U.S. support
ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - New Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani can expect U.S. demands for action against militants in tribal lands on the Afghan border, along with usual statements of support, when he visits Washington next week.
"It will definitely be a tough visit given the ground realities on both sides," said former foreign secretary Shamshad Ahmed Khan, who believed Gilani should assert Pakistan's right to decide how to fight the threat within its own borders.
Gilani will leave on Saturday for his first official visit to the United States and meet President George W. Bush on Monday.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, speaking in Australia on Friday, set the tone by stressing Pakistan had to do more to curb the flow of militants fuelling the Afghan insurgency.
In what looked like a sop, the Bush administration this week asked permission from Congress to let Pakistan upgrade its ageing fleet of F-16 warplanes with $226.5 million of U.S. funds meant for counterterrorism.
For Gilani, the visit is occurring while there is growing disenchantment at home with the four-month-old civilian coalition led by the party of slain two-time prime minister Benazir Bhutto.
People are reeling from soaring oil and food prices, investors fear an economic meltdown, and most Pakistanis see the spread of Taliban influence across the northwest as a direct consequence of doing America's bidding in the war on terrorism.
Gilani will have to walk a political tight rope in Washington, as U.S. support is seen as vital to the success of a transition to civilian-led democracy.
President Pervez Musharraf, the former army chief who took power as a general following a coup in 1999, is still in place, but the staunch U.S. ally has taken a lower profile since the defeat of his political allies in the February election.
Seen as the nominee of Bhutto's widower Asif Ali Zardari, Gilani has struggled to assert himself, especially after a coalition partner quit the cabinet because it was unhappy over Zardari's reluctance to risk confrontation with Musharraf.
TOO MUCH TALK NOT ENOUGH FIGHT
Pakistanis' belief that the United States exerts too much influence over their affairs was reinforced when Bush issued a statement of support for the unpopular Musharraf in May.
Musharraf earned Bush's support by single-handedly spearheading counter-terrorism policies after allying with the United States following al Qaeda's September 11, 2001, attacks.
Yet for all the past successes against al Qaeda, Pakistan is frequently blamed for the Taliban's resurgence over the past two years and for adopting appeasement policies in the tribal areas that the U.S. fears has allowed al Qaeda to regroup.
Washington has broadly backed the new government's strategy of using tribal elders to persuade Islamist guerrillas to stop fighting, and recognizes the need to win the hearts and minds of ethnic Pashtuns who have born the brunt of militant violence that has killed many hundreds in the past year alone.
But the United States also wants Pakistan to take concurrent military action to squeeze the fight out of militants, whose cross-border attacks are blamed for mounting casualties among Western troops in Afghanistan.
Gilani can expect to be put on the spot over the strategy.
"Americans would ask for categorical guarantees," security and political analyst Hasan Askari Rizvi said.
"They would like to know the modalities of the peace talks. They would like to know how government will assert its authority in tribal areas and how will they stop cross-border attacks."
There have been fears in Pakistan that U.S. impatience could result in Western troops being ordered into Pakistani territory, though NATO chief Jaap de Hoop Scheffer ruled that out in Kabul on Thursday. But he said NATO forces reserved the right to shoot back at militants firing from across the border.
(Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore)
