ANALYSIS-Zardari to meet Obama, buoyed by sea-change in Pakistan
By Simon Cameron-Moore
ISLAMABAD, May 3 (Reuters) - Pakistanis don't often see their country the same way as American presidents, but the fear spread by Taliban fighters turning up a few hours drive from Islamabad has finally put them on the same page.
When Barack Obama said on Wednesday that the situation in the nuclear-armed Muslim nation warranted "grave concern" there was no dispute in Pakistan. [ID:nSP437584]
Politicians of every hue, the media and the public have all been seized by the urgent need to fight back.
"The national mood is changing," said a senior Pakistani official with knowledge of foreign policy and security matters.
"People got scared, which is good. Getting scared is good."
The turnaround is occurring as President Asif Ali Zardari prepares to meet Obama and Afghan counterpart Hamid Karzai in Washington on May 6-7 to discuss how to destroy al Qaeda and Taliban sanctuaries on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. [ID:nN01338153]
Pakistan is suffering the backwash from the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan, a price paid, according to critics, for supporting the militants in the past.
The Taliban currently control, are active in or hold influence over 12 percent of Pakistani territory, according to Farrukh Saleem, executive director of the Centre for Research and Security Studies.
These days every Pakistani newspaper and television channel's top story is how well the army is doing in a week-old offensive against the Taliban in Buner valley and the need to support the military. [ID:nISL500163]
Few people give Zardari credit, but at least a hostile media got off his back in order to support the government's decision to send troops into a valley just 100 km (60 miles) from Islamabad.
More than 170 militants have been killed in the fighting and once the Buner operation is over the army is expected to tackle the Taliban stronghold in the Swat valley, further to the north.
"At least now there is some focus within Pakistan about this being our war," said a close aide to Zardari. "For one year ... the president has been saying these words but they haven't resonated. Now they're resonating."
DOLLARS, MILITARY AID, POLITICAL SUPPORT
Obama made clear the support he will be offering at this week's talks when he described Pakistan's government as fragile and short of money, and noted that its army has begun to realise it has to fight homegrown militants instead of obsess over India.
Analysts agree Zardari will probably return from Washington with backing for his one-year-old civilian government, and U.S. commitments to fast-track economic and military aid and speed up reimbursements for expenses incurred fighting militancy.
Some $1.5 billion could arrive from the United States alone this month, according to the senior Pakistani official, giving a hard-up government some leeway to help its people when it announces an annual budget in June.
The official foresaw Obama "giving a signal to Pakistanis that weak or strong, you have a legitimate government that will have American backing so long as Pakistan single-mindedly pursues the real threat which is terrorism".
Zardari is also expected to agree confidence-building measures with Afghanistan to reduce mistrust that overshadowed relations when General Pervez Musharraf was running Pakistan.
ZARDARI'S MIXED STOCK
Obama will inevitably assail Zardari this week with the need to do more to counter the spread of militancy and religious extremism, just as the Bush administration did with Musharraf.
Unpopular, dogged by old slurs of corruption and doubts over his approach to governance, there is plenty of criticism of Zardari, who succeeded his wife Benazir Bhutto as the Pakistan People's Party leader after her assassination in late 2007.
While Zardari speaks strongly of the need to defeat militancy and make friends with India, his credibility remains a big issue with the public.
American faith in Zardari's ability to deliver appeared to wane after he emerged weakened from a crisis involving a showdown with opposition leader Nawaz Sharif in March.
Zardari's stock sank lower when he was forced to cave in to Taliban demands for the establishment of Islamic sharia courts across a large chunk of the northwest, including Swat.
He had little choice, given his own unpopularity, the threat by a coalition partner to quit, parliament's overwhelming support for sharia to appease the militants, and the army's reluctance to fight without public support.
U.S. officials had begun cultivating Sharif more actively, despite wariness over the ex-prime minister's Islamist leanings.
Analysts say the United States is now likely to try to persuade Sharif to work with Zardari's government once more.
They say Zardari always knew the so-called Swat deal, exchanging sharia for peace, was doomed, as the Taliban would overplay their hand. Zardari didn't have to wait long.
He can tell the Americans "I did it my way, and I'm doing it the right way," said Najam Sethi, a leading political analyst and editor of the Daily Times.
"He's got everybody on board against the Taliban ... without suffering the opprobrium of having done it at America's behest."
(Editing by Dean Yates)
