Serbia coalition faces test after liberal win

BELGRADE (Reuters) - Serbia's divided coalition government may face a survival test this week on the issue of European integration following Sunday's slim election victory by pro-Western president Boris Tadic over his nationalist rival.

The European Union welcomed Tadic's re-election as proof that Serbia was sticking to its plan to join the EU, rather than turning to Russia, as nationalists urged, to avenge the West's planned recognition of the independence of Kosovo.

Germany and France congratulated Tadic, and Paris said the EU looked forward to signing a political pact with Serbia on Thursday, to cement its membership bid.

Tadic took 50.5 percent of votes cast on Sunday to beat nationalist Tomislav Nikolic by about 100,000 votes.

But Tadic's coalition ally, Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, refused to back the president in Sunday's ballot. He opposes signing any treaty with the EU if it backs independence for Serbia's Albanian-dominated, breakaway province.

The coalition's junior partner, G-17 Plus, said something had to give now that Tadic, who is pledged to pursue EU membership and accept the EU pact, had won popular endorsement.

"The government will continue to function successfully only if Serbia continues with European integration," said party spokesman Nikola Papak.

"In the coming days we'll see whether the other coalition partners ... share that position."

"It is without doubt better that Tadic won, particularly for the international community ahead of Kosovo's independence," said Croatian analyst Davor Gjenero.

"But the situation in Serbia is obviously very problematic, society is deeply split. There will be little reformist potential and a government crisis is almost certain."

NATIONALISM ALIVE AND WELL

In 2004 when Tadic beat Nikolic by some 9 percentage points, the West welcomed it as a sign that the nationalism stoked by autocrat Slobodan Milosevic in the war-torn 1990s was weakening.

Sunday's result, however, suggested Serbia was as divided as ever between nationalism and pragmatism.

While opposing Kosovo's independence, Tadic wants Serbs to put their future prosperity in the EU ahead of any bitterness they feel over the loss of the province in the coming weeks.

Kostunica wants a hardline response, including repudiation of the EU and measures to strangle Kosovo economically.

A Russian commentator quoted by Serbia's state news agency Tanjug on Monday said Tadic "should not allow the West decide the fate of Kosovo" but take the lead in severing diplomatic relations with countries who recognize the territory -- meaning most of the 27 EU members, as well as the United States.

Kostunica has not personally congratulated Tadic on his win, and has said nothing about changing tack on his policy of confronting the EU over Kosovo, whose 90 percent Albanian majority has Western backing for its separation from Serbia.

This leaves open a dangerous rift in the coalition as Kosovo prepares to declare independence, probably later this month. Political sources said Kostunica may defer to the majority in his coalition cabinet, or make it a 'back-me-or-sack-me' issue.

Serbia's medieval heartland has been run by the U.N. since NATO drove out Serb forces in 1999 to halt the killing of civilians -- mainly Albanian -- in a counter-insurgency war.

"It's good news that the Serb people have shown they want to move toward the future, not turn back to the past," Kosovo's Prime Minister Hashim Thaci said on Monday. "We expect to have good relations in the future, as two states."

(Editing by Richard Balmforth)