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FOREX-Euro poised near $1.59 ahead of ECB verdict, US jobs

Thu Jul 3, 2008 4:23am EDT

* Euro steadies at $1.5874, near 2-month high at $1.5891

Currencies

* Investors await ECB rate decision, U.S. jobs data

* ECB expected to raise rates to 4.25 pct, hint on outlook

* Swedish crown hits 4-week high vs dlr after Riksbank hikes

(Changes dateline, byline, adds quotes, updates prices)

By Veronica Brown

LONDON, July 3 (Reuters) - The euro hit a two-month high against a broadly struggling dollar on Thursday, with sentiment dominated by a widely anticipated European Central Bank rate decision and key U.S. employment data.

The single currency, hovering near $1.59, is poised for an assault on April's record high of $1.6018 if events swing in its favour.

The ECB is widely expected to raise euro area borrowing costs to 4.25 percent, with policymakers having flagged their intensions, putting its post-decision news conference firmly in the spotlight.

Any hint of monetary tightening beyond July would probably propel the euro higher still, when contrasted with a hamstrung U.S. Federal Reserve, caught between rising price pressures and slowing growth.

Inflationary concerns are bound to dominate the ECB's monetary discussions with record high oil prices rapidly approaching $145 a barrel CLc1.

"The risks for the dollar are to the downside both in terms of how hawkish the ECB is going to sound -- we don't think they can afford to sound any less hawkish than they have been given inflation at 4 percent -- and (U.S.) payrolls are not going to be any cause for comfort either," SocGen currency strategist Phyllis Papadavid said.

"With the euro area fundamentals looking not particularly positive but relatively better than the U.S., euro/dollar is going to be a beneficiary of (ECB President Jean-Claude) Trichet sounding pretty concerned on the inflation front," she added.

Sweden set an early pace on monetary policy verdicts on Thursday. Its crown currency hit 4-week highs versus the dollar at 5.9469 crowns SEK= after the Riksbank raised its main policy rate by a quarter point to 4.50 percent and signalled that more tightening was on the cards.

By 0741 GMT, the euro had risen as high at $1.5891 according to Reuters data, before trimming the gains to stand flat on the day at $1.5874 EUR=.

The dollar was also steady against a basket of major currencies at 72.085 .DXY and up 0.1 percent at 105.99 yen JPY=, up around 0.1 on the day.

Stock markets were not seen offering many crumbs of comfort to the dollar, with world stocks falling to their lowest level since January, dropping below lows plumbed in March .MIWD00000PUS.

"SUPER THURSDAY"

U.S. non-farm payrolls are vying for dominance with the ECB in a hefty event calendar, already dubbed "Super Thursday" by some commentators.

Employment data has already knocked the dollar this week after the ADP employment report said U.S. private sector employers slashed 79,000 jobs in June, the largest drop since November 2002, stirring worries that the government's jobs report on Thursday will also come in weak. [ID:nL02544800]

According to economists polled by Reuters, the U.S. government's employment data is likely to show employers cut 60,000 jobs in June after losing 49,000 the prior month. [ID:nN02410076]

"Psychologically, a print showing a greater than 100,000 drop ... would likely have a more profound market impact than a (similar size) upside surprise. The last time payrolls dropped by more than 100,000 was back in November 2002," Calyon strategists said in a note to clients. (Reporting by Veronica Brown; Editing by Mike Peacock)



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