Zimbabwe solution could now take years

HARARE (Reuters) - A solution to Zimbabwe's crisis could be months or even years away despite President Robert Mugabe's public promise, under heavy international pressure, to negotiate with the opposition.

Mugabe suffered unprecedented African and world censure after his refusal to call off a presidential vote in which he was re-elected as the sole candidate last week following opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai's withdrawal.

The African Union called for talks leading to a unity government and the West is preparing new sanctions against Mugabe's entourage because of violence which the opposition Movement for Democratic Change says killed 86 supporters.

Analysts said however that Mugabe is far from surrendering the power he has held since independence from Britain in 1980.

"Anyone who thinks Mugabe or (his ruling) ZANU-PF are on their way out or about to surrender, will be surprised that we are into a long game," said Lovemore Madhuku, a political analyst and chairman of National Constitutional Assembly (NCA).

"Yes, there is pressure but Mugabe clearly went into this for strategic reasons, to ease pressure on his government and to get some breathing space," he said.

"I think his strategy is to wear the opposition down, make a few concessions, but he is not going to do anything that substantially changes or threatens the ZANU-PF order," Madhuku said.

Some analysts say Mugabe and ZANU-PF might still want to strike a deal with the opposition before South African President Thabo Mbeki leaves office next year.

Mbeki is widely seen by critics as sympathetic to Mugabe, but his likely successor, ruling African National Congress president Jacob Zuma, has openly criticized the Zimbabwean government.

ZUMA

"ZANU-PF may decide that they want a solution before Mbeki leaves office next year. Zuma may not be so friendly and accommodating," said John Makumbe, a political analyst.

But other experts see a much longer timeline and do not think Zuma's likely succession will necessarily accelerate Mugabe's departure.

The success of any dialogue hinges on ZANU-PF hardliners and the security establishment, increasingly influential in Mugabe's politics and mindful of their own welfare.

"It is a question of Mugabe and his henchmen, the security chiefs. They will not budge until their concerns have been addressed, particularly iron-clad guarantees on immunity from prosecution," Makumbe said.

Mark Schroeder, sub-Saharan director of risk analysis firm Stratfor, believes that will be the hard part and it could take much longer than a few months.

"At the end of the day, they need to have a personal security guarantee that they are not going to face prosecution for war crimes violations and other crimes in order for them to willingly come out of power and that is going to take a few years to negotiate," he said.

Some analysts believe Mugabe is ready to leave, but only if the conditions are right.

Tom Cargill of Britain's Chatham House think tank says Mugabe probably wants to retire from a position of strength -- thought to be one reason why he held the poll in defiance of world opinion.

"In a way being in a position of strength helps him to help the transition. There are elements in ZANU-PF who want to move on, they are embarrassed by the situation themselves," Cargill said.

"There will be a few months in which various elements of the elite will be realigning themselves and finding new friends... Then we will see some kind of transition will come together. It is not a matter of if but when."

Mugabe, 84, says he is not responsible for an economic meltdown that has seen inflation hit an estimated nine million percent and unemployment above 80 percent, as well as shortages of food, fuel and power.

The former guerrilla commander blames the economic catastrophe on sabotage by Western powers opposed to his rule.

Mugabe says he will not be restrained by "bookish economics", leaving him as unpredictable as ever apart from the one constant of his combative style.

ZANU-PF's violent drive against Tsvangirai's MDC after it won parliamentary and first round presidential polls in March has severely crippled its structures in urban strongholds.

Without sustained international support, Tsvangirai's hand will remain weak and he will struggle to gain ground in negotiations, analysts say.

Tsvangirai has so far said he will not enter negotiations until the violence stops and he should lead any transitional government, on the basis of the March results.

"The international community is very aware now that they are dealing with a difficult regime, and there is an appreciation that without sustained pressure, this regime is determined to hold on," said a Harare-based Western diplomat.

(Editing by Barry Moody)

(For full Reuters Africa coverage and to have your say on the top issues, visit: africa.reuters.com/)