Israel's wings clipped by report on Iran
JERUSALEM (Reuters) - A public difference of opinion between Israel and its U.S. ally about intelligence on Iran's nuclear capability will make it harder for the Jewish state to launch any unilateral preemptive strike on Iran's nuclear sites.
A U.S. National Intelligence Estimates (NIE) report on Monday said Iran had a nuclear arms project but shelved it in 2003, posing an unprecedented overt challenge to Israel's assertions that its arch-foe was bent on acquiring a bomb.
Though the NIE said Iranian uranium enrichment facilities may produce warheads in the next decade, its refusal to perceive an imminent threat sent shockwaves through Israel, which is more used to having Washington endorse its regional strategic vision.
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, faced with doubts by some U.N. Security Council powers on the need to press sanctions against Tehran, urged that diplomatic pressure be intensified.
Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak suggested that American spies had suffered a "disconnect". He later said Israel would pursue "various options" against Iran, but did not elaborate.
The remarks fell far short of past hints that Israel, which is widely assumed to possess the Middle East's only atomic arsenal, could go it alone and hit Iran if it deemed diplomacy a dead end in removing what it sees as a threat to its existence.
"What this report means is that there will be no preemptive U.S. military action against Iran in the foreseeable future," said a recently retired Israeli government intelligence analyst.
"That means there will be no U.S. 'green light' for Israeli strikes. It looks like a done deal," said the ex-analyst, who declined to be named given the sensitivity of the subject.
The report came amid mounting speculation that President George W. Bush could launch U.S. military action before he leaves office in January 2009, even though Washington says it is committed to resolving the Iranian stand-off diplomatically.
Bush said he read the NIE report as a warning about Iran's latent capabilities: "Iran was dangerous. Iran is dangerous." Israeli media reported that Bush planned to come to Israel in January -- his first visit as president -- to show solidarity.
Whether or not Israel -- which drew brief censure from U.S. President Ronald Reagan by bombing Iraq's reactor in 1981 -- would set itself a condition of winning Washington's assent to similarly take on Iran is a matter of some debate.
EXPECTING SURPRISES
Israel, which has peace deals with only two of the surrounding Arab states, depends on the United States for $2.8 billion in annual defence aid and diplomatic backing at the United Nations, where it is often assailed for its treatment of the Palestinians.
"I don't think the Israelis ever asked us permission to do anything," said one senior U.S. official with knowledge of Israel's military affairs. "If they attack Iran, you can be sure it will be in a way that's hugely surprising for everyone."
A retired Israeli diplomat with defence planning experience said secrecy was key. For high-risk missions like a long-range bombing run, he said, "it would be unwise to check in, even with our closest allies, ahead of time".
But Israel would not want angry allies after the event.
The retired Israeli diplomat allowed that the NIE report complicated any Israeli plan to attack Iran, which has denied seeking nuclear weapons and vowed to retaliate for such strikes with missile salvoes on Israel and U.S. targets in the Gulf.
"You resort to force of arms when you feel all other options have been exhausted, and then you explain yourself -- both to your own countrymen, as required in a democracy, and to the world at large," the retired diplomat said.
"This report requires that Israel, which now appears isolated and alarmist, work extra hard to build its case."
Top Israeli officials have been meeting regularly with U.S. counterparts for closed-door discussions on Iran. The former Israeli intelligence analyst said the NIE's conclusions suggested Israel has had a problem winning over the Americans: "Surely if we had hard proof that Iran was about to go nuclear, it would have affected the report's conclusions?"
The retired diplomat pointed to Israel's September 6 air strike on northern Syria as a possible precedent for an attack on Iran.
Israel and the United States have not given details on the Syrian target, which analysts speculated was a nascent nuclear reactor. Syria denied having any such project.
"Look at how muted the world reaction was to whatever happened in Syria. If you don't admit anything, then you can't be held to account," the retired diplomat said.
Israel may not be equipped to repeat its Syria or Iraqi sorties in Iran, whose nuclear facilities are distant, numerous and well-fortified.
(Editing by Caroline Drees)
