PREVIEW-Cancer drug sales seen boosting Roche profits

* Roche full-year results

* Wednesday, Jan 30

* Full-year net profit seen rising 20 percent to 9.47 billion Swiss francs ($8.70 billion)

By Sam Cage

ZURICH, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Roche Holding AG (ROG.VX), Europe's biggest drugmaker, is expected to post a 20-percent rise in annual profit despite growing threats to the sector from tougher regulations, generic competition and patent exposure.

A world-leading portfolio of cancer drugs and limited patent exposures have helped Roche escape many of the problems that have beset competitors GlaxoSmithKline Plc (GSK.L) and Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA).

But questions remain for Roche -- Europe's biggest pharmaceuticals firm with a market capitalisation of $155 billion -- as its key Avastin drug facing possible rejection by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for breast cancer next month.

"We expect little fresh news overall," Societe Generale analysts said in a note. "We expect strong full-year 2007 results... but are wary that consensus may be too high."

Roche is expected to post a 20 percent rise in full-year net profit to 9.47 billion Swiss francs ($8.70 billion), a Reuters poll of 19 analysts showed.

Sales are expected to rise by 10 percent to 46 billion francs at Roche, which is based in Basel, Switzerland.

The company trades at more than 15 times expected 2008 earnings, according to Reuters data, which is a premium to European rivals Glaxo, Sanofi, Novartis AG (NOVN.VX) and AstraZeneca Plc (AZN.L).

Even so, investors say Roche could still be a good buy because of its promising drugs pipeline and the possibility of using current treatments like Avastin for more indications.

On Monday, Avastin received approval for use in treating metastatic colorectal cancer in the European Union.

AVASTIN LANDMARK

Though the company's prospects look good compared to other drugmakers, there are still clouds on the horizon, including the closely watched FDA decision on Avastin next month.

A U.S. advisory panel recommended last year that Avastin, marketed in the United States by Roche's majority-owned partner Genentech Inc DNA.N, should not be approved to treat women with breast cancer as it did not show a favourable balance of risks and benefits.

Avastin, which works by choking off the blood supply that tumours need to grow, is expected to be one of the world's biggest selling drugs.

The panel voted 5-4 that Avastin should not be approved for advanced breast cancer and the FDA usually -- thought not always -- follows that advice.

But it could still decide on approval, or Roche could refile in the indication, analysts say.

Another key piece of news could also be announced with the full-year results, as Roche decides whether to take its experimental R1658 drug, to boost "good" cholesterol, into late-stage development.

Chief Executive Franz Humer, who will be succeeded this year by diagnostics chief Severin Schwan, told Reuters in November that he remained confident about R1583, despite the recent failure of Pfizer Inc's (PFE.N) similar drug torcetrapib, and speculated it could have annual sales above $4 billion.

For detailed results of the Reuters poll, please click on [ID:nL24929866]

For a separate story on Avastin in the European Union, please click on [ID:nL28494906]

(Editing by Jason Neely)