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FACTBOX-What next for Kenya's power-sharing deal?

Tue Apr 8, 2008 7:54am EDT
April 8 (Reuters) - Kenya's opposition suspended talks with President Mwai Kibaki's party on Tuesday and police fired teargas to disperse opposition supporters protesting at deepening deadlock over a power-sharing cabinet.

Below are answers to some questions about what happens next.



WHAT IS THE DISPUTE ABOUT?

The National Accord and Reconciliation Act 2008, brokered by former U.N. chief Kofi Annan in February, establishes power-sharing based on a political party's relative strength in parliament, through the apportionment of cabinet posts.

Both sides said they had agreed last week on how to share 40 ministerial jobs, but bickering started immediately.

Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) says Kibaki's Party of National Unity (PNU) reneged on a promise to cede key ministries including local government and foreign affairs.

PNU denies that and accuses ODM of undermining negotiations with "new preconditions and ultimatums" at the 11th hour.

Both sides also disagree on the extent of Kibaki's executive authority under the Act, on Odinga's powers as prime minister-designate, and on the naming of civil service posts.



WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT?

Kibaki has said he is ready and willing to conclude the formation of the coalition cabinet at the earliest possible opportunity and urged the opposition to engage "constructively".

Odinga said he was committed to the speedy implementation of the peace deal, but would meet Kibaki again only after there was "clarity" on the contentious issues.

Riots and tribal violence after the disputed poll killed at least 1,200 people and uprooted 300,000 more. Some Kenyans fear the deadlock, and Tuesday's protests, could bring more turmoil.



HOW WILL THE ECONOMY FARE?

Kenya's shilling continued to slide against the dollar on Tuesday, trading at 62.85/63.05 compared with the highest level this year when it touched 61.75/85 on Friday after Kibaki and Odinga said they planned to announce the new cabinet on Sunday.

The shilling has been the strongest barometer of confidence, and most investors want to see some long-term stability before making a big move.

The political harm to the economy has been compounded by inflation which hit 21 percent in March. But the stock market may stay somewhat insulated because of overwhelming regional and foreign interest in the recent IPO by mobile firm Safaricom, the region's biggest ever share offering.



WHAT ABOUT KENYA'S LONG TERM PROBLEMS?

Once a coalition cabinet has been named, legislators are meant to turn toward amending Kenya's constitution within a year. Since the early 1990s, Kenyans have been calling for changes to the 45-year-old document.

ODM defeated a 2005 draft backed by Kibaki, and many expect acrimonious debate over a new one. The changes are supposed to address issues of land, inequality and power that most Kenyans believe the current constitution encourages by placing so much power in the presidency.



CAN THE COALITION HOLD TOGETHER?

The deal brokered in February says the coalition can be broken three ways: if parliament is dissolved, if the parties agree to it in writing, or if one party withdraws. Much still depends on good faith on both sides. (Writing by Bryson Hull and Daniel Wallis)





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