FACTBOX-Scenarios for Serbia after PM dissolves government

March 10 (Reuters) - Serbia faces renewed uncertainty on Monday under a caretaker government which will lead the country to its most important election since voters ended the era of the late autocrat Slobodan Milosevic.

Here are some scenarios for what could happen next after Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica dissolved the government on Saturday:



GOVERNMENT MEETS ON MONDAY

In theory, the Democratic Party and G17 Plus party could oppose the formal dissolution of the cabinet because they have 17 ministerial posts to Kostunica's 8. They could launch a lengthy procedure to elect a new government from the same parliament. But both parties say they would prefer a snap election.



PRESIDENT DISSOLVES PARLIAMENT

President Boris Tadic, head of the Democratic Party, would order the dissolution of the parliament. Elections must be held within 60 days, with the most likely date being May 11, when local elections are scheduled to take place.

KOSOVO, EU ARE THE ONLY CAMPAIGN ISSUES

The campaign will expose deep fault lines in Serbian society, asking Serbs to decide if defending their claim to Kosovo, which declared independence on Feb 17 with Western backing, is more important than joining the European Union.

The Democrats and G17 Plus will highlight the practical benefits EU membership will bring in terms of investment, jobs and better living standards, while being lukewarm on Kosovo.

The nationalist Radicals, Serbia's strongest single party, will focus on the emotional pull of Kosovo, the few benefits that the poor get out of EU membership, and an alternative path to prosperity, through closer ties with Russia and others.

Kostunica will likely campaign on his record of defending Kosovo and opposing EU ties as long as the bloc insists on backing independence for the Albanian-majority territory.



HUNG PARLIAMENT, PROTRACTED COALITION TALKS

One poll shows the Radicals have won voters since Kosovo's secession, and can now clinch 40 percent. It predicts Democrats and G17 Plus together would get some 37.5 percent of the vote. The forecast is that neither grouping can get more than 45 percent.

Although Kostunica appears to have lost voters to both rival blocs and now has just 10 percent support, that would still be enough to make him a kingmaker in the next government.



ECONOMIC REFORMS, WAR CRIMES ON BACKBURNER

With a caretaker government in place until May, and coalition talks possibly dragging on through summer, Serbia's long-delayed economic reforms will remain drafts on parliament papers, further discouraging investors and slowing growth. The inertia will also affect another key issue, the handover of war crimes suspects from the wars of the 1990s to the United Nations tribunal in The Hague. The EU says all four remaining fugitives, among them genocide suspects Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic, must be handed over for Serbia to progress towards membership. (Writing by Ellie Tzortzi; Editing by Dominic Evans)