European capitals eye Democrat for White House

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - While no one is writing off the Republicans this early in the U.S. presidential race, Europe's top diplomats are quietly banking on the prospect of a Democrat as the next occupant of the White House.

For most European capitals, either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama would mark a welcome break with a Bush era that saw the continent divided over Iraq, and which many view as tarnished by rights abuses committed in the "war on terror".

"People are already distinguishing between the business we can do now with the Americans, and the things on which we would make better progress with Democrats," said one senior European diplomat who requested anonymity.

High up in that second list are all the bones of contention with the Bush administration, he said -- from the fight against global warming to Europe's calls to close the U.S. military prison in Guantanamo Bay.

For months, European leaders have assumed Clinton would win the Democrat nomination and had put her down as unofficial favorite to go on to the White House, analysts said.

She may still be after her win at the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday. Yet Obama's victory last week in the Iowa caucus has reminded them with a jolt that her nomination is not inevitable.

"Most European leaders had assumed the Clinton team would be back, and that was reassuring," said Antonio Missiroli, chief policy analyst at the Brussels-based European Policy Centre.

"The predominant feeling after Iowa was of surprise -- and concern in some quarters."

INEXPERIENCE?

While Clinton has been in the European eye since her pro-active 1990s spell as U.S. First Lady, Missiroli said Obama is far less known outside the United States and has cultivated a more unpredictable image as a Washington outsider.

While Obama has forged ties with a host of top U.S. policy experts -- including advisers to former U.S. President Bill Clinton -- the make-up of his foreign policy team, if elected, is far from evident.

His flagship pledge to pull U.S. troops out of Iraq is clear enough, but Europeans are guessing about his broader view of the world -- and where they fit into it.

"Obama seems more attuned to the need to get others in the world on board," said the European diplomat, of indications he would seek to involve rising powers, notably in Asia.

"But that might not be too good for Europe which likes to see itself as the automatic first port of call."

Tomas Valasek of the London-based Centre for European Reform think tank doubted Obama's foreign policy inexperience would worry too many European capitals, saying his ability to draw a symbolic line under the Bush era would be more important.

"Experience is the last thing Europeans are looking for -- (U.S. Vice President) Dick Cheney and (ex-Secretary of State) Donald Rumsfeld had experience going back to the 1950s and look where that got us," he said of their role in the Iraq war.

"What they want is for the U.S. to recapture its role as a force for good and democracy, and Obama's message of hope strikes a chord with many Europeans," he said.

Of the Republicans, Vietnam veteran John McCain's victory in his party's primary in New Hampshire will have reassured many in Europe who see him as a more reliable partner than some rivals -- notably Baptist minister and Iowa victor Mike Huckabee.

Diplomats said McCain had garnered respect in Europe for calling for the closure of the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay and for his plans to address global warming.

THE "BUSH EXCUSE"

The winner will face a new generation of European leaders such as Germany's Angela Merkel and France's Nicolas Sarkozy seeking a chance for a new start with Washington.

They will want U.S. backing for European goals such as coming up with a successor regime to the Kyoto Protocol on global warming, opposed by Bush, and will be keen to plot a new joint approach to global security.

But the same leaders also know that any demand from Obama, Clinton or McCain would be harder to refuse than if it were coming from Bush -- widely unpopular among European publics.

"The 'Bush excuse' excuse goes away," said one source at NATO headquarters in Brussels, where the United States has for months been trying largely in vain to win pledges of European troops for the war in Afghanistan.

"There is the concern here that next year the U.S. will say: 'That guy you didn't like has gone -- now we need some more help in Afghanistan'. It's going to get harder for the Europeans to say 'No'."

(Editing by David Brunnstrom and Elizabeth Piper)