Iran's nuclear boast may open way for talks

By Paul Taylor - Analysis

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Iran's announcement that it has achieved the capacity to make nuclear fuel on an industrial scale drew international skepticism on Tuesday, but it may open an opportunity for negotiations with the West.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared amid patriotic fanfare on Monday that Tehran was now able to enrich uranium on a large scale for a program it insists is purely civilian but which the West suspects is aimed at developing weapons.

Russia was quick to say it saw no sign the Iranians had made significant progress, a view echoed privately by Western experts who saw the vaguely phrased boast as a public relations coup.

"We are not aware of any technological breakthroughs in the Iranian nuclear program recently which would change the nature of work on enrichment being carried out in the country," a Russian Foreign Ministry statement said.

Iran has managed to make a pilot project with two 164-centrifuge cascades work episodically, according to a February 22 report by the U.N. nuclear watchdog, but diplomats say it has apparently had technical problems in expanding the network.

Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani was quoted by Iranian media as saying Tehran had built 3,000 centrifuges, but Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters in Moscow he believed the new centrifuges were not in full operation.

Mark Fitzpatrick, an expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, said Ahmadinejad's speech was strikingly imprecise, disclosing neither how many centrifuges were working nor whether uranium hexafluoride gas had been introduced into them.

"This was very much a political event staged to reassure a domestic audience that they are making progress towards achieving some milestones and to show the world that Iran is not about to comply with the U.N. Security Council demands despite the sanctions," he said.

WINDOW?

But by boosting national pride and asserting independence, the announcement may have given Larijani a window to explore a diplomatic solution with EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, Fitzpatrick said.

Ahmadinejad's dramatic resolution last week of a standoff with old nemesis Britain over Iran's capture of 15 UK naval personnel may also have set the stage for diplomacy.

"They could use the announcement to say: we have achieved what we set out to achieve. Now we can pause and enter into negotiations from a position of strength," Fitzpatrick said.

Diplomats familiar with Solana's exploratory contacts with Larijani say the outcome is uncertain and the Iranian decision-making process remains frustratingly opaque.

The negotiators have had two telephone calls since the Security Council ratcheted up sanctions against Iran last month over its refusal to suspend enrichment.

The sticking point remains Tehran's unwillingness to accept even a time-limited suspension, EU officials say.