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PREVIEW-Novartis stars among European cancer drug hopes

Wed May 14, 2008 5:18am EDT

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* Data on cancer drugs from European companies

Stocks  |  Global Markets

* Includes Novartis, Merck MGaA, Roche, Glaxo

* Some data available Friday, May 16, 0100 GMT, ahead of May

30 meeting of American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO)

By Sam Cage

ZURICH, May 14 (Reuters) - Investors will assess clinical data this week on cancer drugs from several European companies, who are increasingly keen to develop their oncology portfolios as fierce generic competition erodes business in other areas.

Swiss-based Novartis AG (NOVN.VX) will present two sets of kidney cancer data on RAD001, seen as one of its most important new drugs, at the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) annual meeting, which starts May 30 in Chicago.

Data on RAD001 -- and other important drugs from European companies, including Roche Holding AG (ROG.VX) and Merck KGaA (MRCG.DE) -- will be presented at the ASCO meeting, but much of the information will be available from early on Friday.

Cancer drugs are a popular target for drugmakers, as they are less vulnerable to competition than other franchises and tend to command higher prices, and RAD001 could be a possible billion-dollar seller.

Novartis will present data from two trials, the most important a Phase II study in combination with Avastin from Genentech Inc DNA.N and Roche.

Novartis will also present more detail at ASCO from a late-stage trial of RAD001, which works by blocking a protein known as mTOR and hence disrupting the growth, division and metabolism of cancer cells. Headline data from that study has already been reported.

The company aims for first approval filings in kidney cancer later this year and will subsequently develop the drug for larger indications such as breast and lung cancers.

"RAD001 might be a very exciting drug but with filings for major indications only in 2011 or later, we have limited sales in our short- and mid-term forecasts," said Landsbanki Kepler analyst Denise Anderson.

AVASTIN THREAT

ASCO could also prove an important event for Novartis's local Swiss rival Roche, with Merck KGaA (MRCG.DE) and ImClone Systems Inc IMCL.O presenting data on Erbitux, which could become more of a competitive threat to Avastin.

Erbitux was initially approved in colon cancer but could be used in a wider range of tumour types, including non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), where it could give Merck a significant boost.

Avastin is seen as a key driver for Roche and its majority-owned U.S. partner Genentech due to its potential in different types of cancer, but little new data from late-stage trials is expected at ASCO this year.

But data from a late-stage trial of Erbitux in lung cancer, as well as results from a study that could be used to predict resonse of colon cancer patients to the drug, will be presented in Chicago and could have an impact on Roche and Genentech.

"Clinical data on Erbitux due to be presented at this year's ASCO conference could provide further upside potential to the stock, with Erbitux in NSCLC creating the biggest commercial opportunity in our view," said Vontobel analyst Markus Metzger.

MORE TYKERB DATA

Other European companies will have updated data on marketed and experimental products, but analysts do not expect major news from GlaxoSmithKline Plc (GSK.L), Bayer AG BAYG.DE, AstraZeneca Plc (AZN.L) or Sanofi-Aventis SA (SASY.PA).

Tykerb -- a rival to Genentech's Herceptin -- will be the main focus for Glaxo, which will give more data on its use in metastatic and inflammatory breast cancer. There will be little new to say, however, about Tykerb's use as a first-line treatment or in early stages of cancer, where the big commercial potential lies.

Bayer is expected to share new Phase II trial results on Nexavar in liver cancer in Asian patients, which could help sales in China and Japan.

AstraZeneca will have Phase II data on Recentin and Zactima while Sanofi is expected to air some early studies on aflibercept, which it is developing in partnership with Regeneron (REGN.O). (Additional reporting by Ben Hirschler in London; Editing by Louise Ireland)



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